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The best way to put your views are as such....
you have the red corner, who make China into a supoerpoweer right now...
you have the blue corner who make China into a third world state and military...
The truth is this. China has a very large military. This military is right now medium tech....it has some aspects edges which are hi-tech (J-11 for example), but the majority isn't, then you have it's low end bits too...which are aslo a minority, the F-7's etc...sure right now they have quite a few, 5 years time those are gonna be replaced with JF-17 and J-10...planes which have sent shockwaves to all noraml rational western watchers...they're not super planes, but they are good planes, they can hold thier own....they put China on a level field.
Thier SAM systems are incredibly good and getting better....and they ahve an awful lot of them. They do not currently have a navy tha compared with the USN, but they are building one that will.
Right now it's like this, China is in no position to attack Taiwan, because America might interefere and China might lose, however if they did America is in no position to defedn Taiwan because the price is too high, you will get a lot of casulties, now the balance is all in, how much casulties China and USA are willing to take.
An American attack on China right now could not be held back forever, but it might take 2-3 years to actaully take China, can America afford to fight for that long with near enough 7-800,000 troops, as that is probably what it would tkae, if not vastly more.
Right now China cannot repel an Amnerican attack in the air and from the sea, they can put huge holes in it though....but America would put in bigger holes, eventaully winning probably.
Alll that aside you have the nuclear threat, China can reach America, if china is facing defeat there is a chance they might nuke America ias revenge, how many of your own will you risk to protect Taiwan?
you see, sitting around waving your flags is all great, but the truth of the matter is, any such war, would be ling, brutal, smashing to the worl economy, impossible to end without a nuclear exchange, who wants to pay that price for Taiwan? China doesn't, nor does America.
Militarily the future of Tiawan depends on wether China can become on Military par with America, so that they could sucssfully repel US air/sea attacks quickly and at a high price to USA and low price to PRC.
India....doesn't come into the Equation. India is too small to compete with China on military terms. The chinese have currently 200+ flankers as well as FBC-1 and thier J-7's....the Indian airforce do not pose any threat, in fact they are under threat.
By 2010-15 India will probably have an airforce capable of causing damage to the PRC and so will probably secure themselves a footing, but still not on the level of China, why because quite simply India isn't arming itself to tkae on a world Superpower to get Tiawan, India is arming itself, not to beat Pakistan, but to overwhelm it, totally smash it, but that is another story.
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