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Originally Posted by zraver
A Sino-Indian arms race is not good for India.
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Only if India considers it as a race. With out raising an alarm both India and China are building their bombs, testing their designs. So when India tests the 5000 km version of Agni pretty much it advertises it can hit China anywhere as it wants. All we need is a significant number of them in deployment. So in my opinion its not an arms race at all. When China starts building up, the US, Russia and Japan will answer it in kind. I believe, China will think twice to do a build up directly wrt India.
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You can se all the bad anaolgies you want but that wont change the underlying economics of the matter. if India can shoot down X PRC missiles, then the PRC needs x+T with t being the minimum number of warheads needed to hit the target list. China already has the Fissile material to do this. More importantly however if China does this and builds its own ABM system then India is right back where it started- open to Chinese blackmail.
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Seriously, I still think ABM's will not work in our case. Even if you have 100's of interceptor missiles deployed in the border. There are plenty more areas where India can launch its missiles from. So India doesnt need the capability to shoot X missiles. All it needs is the capability to fire (second strike) Y number of missiles on China and thats exactly what they are working on currently. ABM is just a bonus.
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I am curious what reaction you think the US will have.
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China just cannot have an India centric buildup. No one will believe China, the same that we saw happen in the last 40 years. The reason why China, India and Pakistan went nuclear.