Quote:
Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers
And India would go bankrupt doing so. And considering the head start the Chinese got, it is a losing game. The Chinese could acquire a 1st strike capability long before India could acquire a complete retaliation capability. In fact, they already have 1400 missiles that just need nukes. Right now, they're tasked conventionally and even then, they represent a conventional strike capability against Indian nuclear assets (3-5 missiles salvo volleys per target). And the Chinese would still have a 2nd and 3rd strike.
Tellis once mentioned that Indian defence planners know that while they can hurt China, China can destroy India.
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OoE, Sir its not about head starts. Unless China wants to go to war to keep India from acquiring the nukes as part of its normal defense acquisitions India has been building them since the 70's. India may have as many as 90 deployable warheads to China's 105-200 plus Pakistans 30-35 so the lead is not all that great on the part of the Chinese. It is enough to destroy China as a functioning society. China is also bound by the NPT/CTBT India is not.
It is only a matter of time till India achieves true MAD with China. If they follow the US/USSR model at that point both sides will begin setting limitations via treaty. Part and parcel of this will be setting warhead limits for each side that maintain MAD. This means if I am correct China will let India catch up like the US did for the Soviets as part of the Cuban Missile Crisis settlement.
Following parity, both sides will then limit delivery systems. Does anyone know if India and China/Pakistan have a hot line yet?