Quote:
Originally Posted by Oscar
Hans constitute more than 90% of the population and there are dozens of minorities who fit the remaining 10% therefore it is highly improbable there will be any sort of successful ethnic separatism.
And for the social unrests you forget the consensus among the apparatchik and the emerging bourgoisie; basically the formers let the latters enrich themselves by providing them stability and in exchange the ruling class is not challenged by the new chinese bourgois. It can last 20 years, maybe a lot more.
PS: For people who predict a French Revolution. what you always forget is that it was the emerging French bourgoisie, not the poor, who overthrew the throne because the monarchy and overall the aristocracy, didn't want to share power with them. On the contrary in China the CCP is already engaging with them.
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I agree that stability and economic development is keeping the country together, and the emerging middle class in China is pressing the government for more freedom and transition to democracy.
I don’t expect anything like a French Revolution.
In my opinion, the biggest threat to China is its own military force. Military leaders are still observing the traditional personal loyalty to some elders, and these elders who have real political and military influence are often out of touch with the modern world. The Culture Revolution would not have happened without the backing of the elders. The Tiananmen Square incident would not have happened if these elders had a different opinion. (More comments on #22) The warlord history of China makes this threat much more alarming.
I also see the culture decay and the lack of a unifying “civilization” a big problem down the road. Taiwan has mostly Han Chinese. We don’t believe the ethnic identity and China’s power, economically or politically, are sufficient reasons for us to live under their government.