Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
We cannot airlift 2 marine divisions. hell we cant even concentrate 2 Marine divisions without tipping the US's hand.
|
Sure it can, in fact the marines from the ARGs have been training in Kuwait for the last few years to do precisely that.
And so what if the US tips its hand?
Are you suggesting that:
1) Iranian tank divisions will enter the Indian Ocean and drive across the sea bottom and surface undetected in the delta attacking the marines from the rear?; or
2) Iranian units will tunnel under the Zagros Mountains over the next 40 years and surface in Khuzehstan to attack?; or
3) Iranian units will invade Iraq through Kurdistan then travel south to Basra, engaging and defeating US and multi-national forces before turning east to flank US units?
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has said that any use of the GCC nations or other Iranian neighbors by the US in an attack on Iran will bring retribution. ASAIK, all have said no to the US conducting offensive operations from thier territory.
|
No kidding. They aren't needed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has at least several hundred and possibly several thousands SRBM and IRBM some are true ballistic missiles with at least limited MIRV capability.
|
Okay, the Iranians launch from shore and the SRBMs land 75 miles out in the Persian Gulf water, go Boom! and lots of fishies die while the US sailors munch on popcorn.
Or,
The Iranians try to move undetected to an area close near the eastern approaches were they can launch and the marines can enjoy the fireworks from a safe distance while munching on MREs.
No such thing as a MIRVd IRBM, you know, it's the physics thing.
The Russians had an IRBM that was a MRV (that's M-R-V not M-I-R-V).
Iran's IRBMs don't work well anyway, in part because they still haven't figured out the "ballistic" part of "ballistic missile" so 50 that can't fly or 500,000 that can't fly makes no difference.
Besides, doesn't the US have the vaunted Patriot anti-anti-anti-anti-missile thingy? Heck an Arleigh Burke with a RIM-156 and a SPY-1D AS would work just as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has one of the worlds largest supplies of sea mines- inlcuding some rocket mines.
|
So then why is the US navy still afloat in the Persian Gulf? Those mines won't do any good unless their deployed, and there's no doubt they are not, since carrier battle groups and amphibious ready groups continually sail in, around and out of the Persian Gulf.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has hundreds of speed boats and nearly 100 FAC's that are nearly ideal for a Persian Gulf region littoral fight.
|
Yes, and the US has Hawkeyes and a variety of surface search helicopters and submarines with sonar to locate them. So what? In a state of war the US will be shooting and asking questions later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has hundreds of jet aircraft including some that are a very real threat to US assets.
|
And the US has none? I would be the last person to down-play the threat of Iranian aircraft, but that's where stealth bombers come in to play. The Iranian air force is only effective if the squadrons can disperse to their forward operating bases. If the runways at the major bases get cratered, the squadrons cannot deploy and are no threat to the US.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has said it will block the shipment of tankers out of the Persian Gulf if war breaks out.
|
And Roger Ellersbydorman of No 2 Clydall High Road said he'd pick his nose, so what?
Iran will not block the Straight of Hormuz.
Hello? Is there anybody out there? What do you all think navy personnel have been doing in the Persian Gulf on their deployments, playing shuffle board, having a circle-jerk or watching
Cats!?
All they do is plot and track targets 24/7.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iranian Revolutionary Guards forces occupy the Thunds and several militarized offshore platforms.
|
So? Aren't there Navy SEALs?
Okay, so we all know the SEALs would screw it up, so we'll send marines, rangers, special ops. Who cares?
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iranian Revolutionary Guards members may well be suicidal, this includes runs to hijack tankers and sink them across the shipping lanes (physical block) and or drive up insurance premiums (economic block) or possibly run them at the GCC terminals.
|
And Her Majesty's navy is going to sit around and watch? No, and neither is the US navy.
"Shi'a suicide bomber" is like an oxymoron. The Shi'a, with their shrines and saints and relics are like Eastern Orthodox and catholics. Suicide is a big taboo. No 72 virgins or romping in Allah-Land if you commit suicide.
Does anyone have any evidence of a Shi'a suicide attack
with multiple confirmed sources, preferably independent sources (and global security/global research/Wayne Madsen and the other doofs don't count)?
Because I'm not aware of any suicide attacks carried out by Shi'a.
Sunni suicide attacks, sure, Sunni is nearly synonymous with Protestant. There are Protestant sects that dance with snakes or lick frogs or speak in tongues and what not, and Sunnis have the same sects. There's Pentacostals where the women wear dresses and don't cut their hair, and the Sunnis have the same sects.
Anyway, it would be physically impossible to block the Strait of Hormuz, if for no other reason than it would take hours to assemble enough tankers, and get them into position before being sunk.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Any overt surge by US forces including flights of B-2's lifting off from Missouri will be obvious and tip the US hand.
|
Obviously a newbie.
That's a problem that presents itself to the US air force, but contrary to what you might believe, they're keenly aware of that.
Regardless, the air force knows how to deal with it, which is why no one saw the B-2s or B-1s leave for Iraq, or saw them leave for Afghanistan, or the B-2s leave for Yugoslavia, or saw FB-111s or B-1s leave for the first Iraq war, or FB-111s leave for Libya.
I could move the B-2s from Whiteman to Guam or Diego Garcia and you wouldn't know anything about it was all over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran has a plethora of anti-shipping missiles including a few hundred modern or semi modern large missiles that can threaten any surface vessel they find.
|
So what? All surface-to-surface anti-ship missile batteries have been tracked and targeted for the last 6 years. They'll be destroyed in the first 10 minutes of combat, without firing a missile.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Now given those facts, if the US decides that war is the better option what will the US have to use.
|
What facts? You're a little out of your league.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
If one or more VLCC+ sized vessels gets ripped apart it will be like a nuke going off in the gulf as far as ecologic damage is concerned.
|
You might want to study the designs a little more carefully, or at least talk to the reactor crewman.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Iran will probably pop missiles at Israel.
|
Again, I see no evidence that Iran has figured out the "ballistic" part of "ballistic missile" or that the missiles have functioning conventional warheads.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Syria might attack Israel.
|
A Sunni country would attack Israel because why? A Shi'a country is under attack?
Gosh, if I was Sunni Syria and I did nothing, and Shi'a Iran collapsed into civil war, then Shi'a Iran couldn't fund the Shi'a Hezbollah that was up my Sunni ass 24/7 trying to take over my country, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
6 dollar a gallon gas will be a bargain.
|
No, the US will have control of the oil, which is the objective of the conflict.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Offensively
4 carriers- 2 in the Gulf, 1 replacement enroute, and 1 snuck into the area (yes you can sneak a carrier). At least 1 carrier has to remain inside the Gulf to avoid giving the game away. The carrier group in the Gulf might well be doomed no matter what we do and that could mean thousands of US dead in days not years.
|
1,000s of US dead? Why? Is your mother cooking for them?