Originally Posted by Shek

RJ,

Stupid Businessman is the stupid one. The US has had its cake and eaten it too, while China has a bunch of low yield pieces of paper to show for it (they also saw a huge increase in their economy, so there was a mutually beneficial element to it).

The weakening dollar is part of adjustment process, and so while the metaphor talks about an abrupt transition, the reality is that the transition could be slow and steady. The lack of savings in the US is also a result of more than just cheap consumer goods - dissavings due to the retiring of the first wave of boomers as well as capital gains earned during the 90s by middle America. As long as SE Asia was willing to cover our government debt and the OECD nations were still pouring financial capital to cover some of our investment spending on capital goods, the good times for the consumer was funded.

The party's coming to an end, but rather than being fired at work, what is actually happening is that people are just going home and will have to return to normal life. There may be a slight hang over, but take two aspirin and everything will be fine in the morning.