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Ray · 04-15-2008, 03:12 AM

One has to understand the Taliban, Afghanistan and Pakistan issue in its correct perspective in its political, economic, religious and military realms.

I take it that the origin and genesis is known and requires no elaboration.

Afghanistan is important to Pakistan since there is religious affinity and the thorny issue of Pashtun commonality along a large tract of western Pakistan, as also, the historical connection of the Baloch people with this issue. Since these people are very independent in action and thought, it poses a serious worry to GoP since one does not know which side the cat will jump or the 'nuisance' they can create for Pakistan. Likewise, Afghans are also not too sure how this issue will pan out on their side of the border consequent to the problems in Pakistan with these elements.

Thus, that is possibly the reason for the common suspicion between Afghanistan and Pakistan that even the surge in pan Islamism cannot overcome.

Historically, the Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Tajiks, Turkmen, Nuristanis, Aimaks and the Balochis have coexisted with much rancour under the central authority of the Shah. This is because of the unique tribal system that prevailed wherein the tribes remained supreme and yet accepted the suzerainty of the Shah. Current efforts to establish a central authoritative govt is alien to the Afghan culture. Unless, there is spectacular improvement, none will abandon their fiefs for a federal structure. Even, if there are spectacular improvements, dissolving the tribal centric mindset will take years to dissolve.

Likewise, to expect that the tribes in western Pakistan will allow a federal control is a pipedream and it will meet with resistance and will take time to pan out. It is a historical aberration.

Therefore, these areas are and will be volatile in construct that military might alone will not iron out.

Strategically, Afghanistan is the gateway, as is Pakistan, into Central Asia - the new found golden goose. Therefore, the interest of various global and regional players is not surprising and require no elaboration for the educated posters of this forum.

In so far as the issue of the Taliban is concerned, the biggest problem that any Pakistani govt faces is that the population, steeped in Islam, are not amenable to fighting fellow Moslem since Islam is paramount over any geopolitical or geostrategic interest.

It would be a fallacy to believe that the educated elite alone represents the Pakistani mindset and it would also be dangerous to believe that the educated elite are devoid of the strong Islamic feeling (different from fundamentalist feeling) that prevents the GoP to apply itself pragmatically taking all factors of international relationship into consideration relegating Islamic sensitivity and sensibilities.

If a pragmatic person like Musharraf, backed by the military, could not deliver, it would be a real surprise if a democratic govt, that requires votes to exist, can.

Pakistanis are not against Taliban at all. They differentiate between Pakistani Taliban (who the educated feel are misguided) and the Afghan Taliban (whom the educated dislike because of the suspicions of Afghanistan).

A very interesting and a very convoluted conundrum that should not be superficially analysed.

04-15-2008, 03:12 AM	#29 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 28,382 Country:	One has to understand the Taliban, Afghanistan and Pakistan issue in its correct perspective in its political, economic, religious and military realms. I take it that the origin and genesis is known and requires no elaboration. Afghanistan is important to Pakistan since there is religious affinity and the thorny issue of Pashtun commonality along a large tract of western Pakistan, as also, the historical connection of the Baloch people with this issue. Since these people are very independent in action and thought, it poses a serious worry to GoP since one does not know which side the cat will jump or the 'nuisance' they can create for Pakistan. Likewise, Afghans are also not too sure how this issue will pan out on their side of the border consequent to the problems in Pakistan with these elements. Thus, that is possibly the reason for the common suspicion between Afghanistan and Pakistan that even the surge in pan Islamism cannot overcome. Historically, the Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Tajiks, Turkmen, Nuristanis, Aimaks and the Balochis have coexisted with much rancour under the central authority of the Shah. This is because of the unique tribal system that prevailed wherein the tribes remained supreme and yet accepted the suzerainty of the Shah. Current efforts to establish a central authoritative govt is alien to the Afghan culture. Unless, there is spectacular improvement, none will abandon their fiefs for a federal structure. Even, if there are spectacular improvements, dissolving the tribal centric mindset will take years to dissolve. Likewise, to expect that the tribes in western Pakistan will allow a federal control is a pipedream and it will meet with resistance and will take time to pan out. It is a historical aberration. Therefore, these areas are and will be volatile in construct that military might alone will not iron out. Strategically, Afghanistan is the gateway, as is Pakistan, into Central Asia - the new found golden goose. Therefore, the interest of various global and regional players is not surprising and require no elaboration for the educated posters of this forum. In so far as the issue of the Taliban is concerned, the biggest problem that any Pakistani govt faces is that the population, steeped in Islam, are not amenable to fighting fellow Moslem since Islam is paramount over any geopolitical or geostrategic interest. It would be a fallacy to believe that the educated elite alone represents the Pakistani mindset and it would also be dangerous to believe that the educated elite are devoid of the strong Islamic feeling (different from fundamentalist feeling) that prevents the GoP to apply itself pragmatically taking all factors of international relationship into consideration relegating Islamic sensitivity and sensibilities. If a pragmatic person like Musharraf, backed by the military, could not deliver, it would be a real surprise if a democratic govt, that requires votes to exist, can. Pakistanis are not against Taliban at all. They differentiate between Pakistani Taliban (who the educated feel are misguided) and the Afghan Taliban (whom the educated dislike because of the suspicions of Afghanistan). A very interesting and a very convoluted conundrum that should not be superficially analysed. __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA Last edited by Ray : 04-15-2008 at 03:21 AM.