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No, my point about the Soong canon was that they would've become the dominant military power in the region. Whether that translate into marching north is another question but it does mean that they would've been invulnerable against northern aggression, at least until the military technology balanced out and I'm not sure how that would be achieved. From Europe perhaps?
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Trade (legal or otherwise) or capturing weapons or smiths. The Qing captured Chinese cannon makers to create their own artillery park.
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Or you could be under the Russian boot. Do recall the only way the Qin took the Ming was through treachery and then went on to use Chinese firepower to stop the Russians.
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But they used steppe style mobility to take East Turkestan and Mongolia.