Originally Posted by fitz

The Iowa’s were designed to survive the threats of 1938. They are not designed to survive the threats of today. Nothing even remotely approaching Granit for example could possibly have even been contemplated when the Iowa’s were first drawn. If it had, they would not be protected the way they are, or more likely they would have suffered the fate of HMS Lion.

In modern terms, I give the Kirov’s far more chance of survival. Based on real-world experience your estimation of what Harpoon can do seems at best an overstatement. An Iowa has 16, they are small, much slower and much shorter legged than Kirov’s own armament and this is going to be one of those instances where he who shoots first has the leg up. Given the Kirov’s much superior detection and tracking capability it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Kirov does not get off the first shots. If Kirov shoots first, the Iowa’s chances of survival are poor. SPS-49 may spot the Granit’s at a distance but will lose them as they close the ship. Mk 37 probably can’t even see Granit, let alone track it. Phalanx was built to attack subsonic sea-skimmers not Mach 3 zenith divers. It probably won’t see and can’t engage the inbounds either. Chaff might seduce some of the inbounds but the Iowa is still a big target (literally and in terms of signature) and the Granit’s have more than one form of guidance. And there’s only so much chaff ready to fire. Besides, that implies SLq-32 does its job, like it did so well in 1987. I think I mentioned earlier how when the USS Missouri was attacked by anti-ship missiles in 1991 she was not even aware until the missiles were flying past the ship (they never went active). This doesn’t give one much cause for hope. When (not if) the Iowa does get hit the battleships armor, designed for far more modest threats of a completely different nature, is unlikely to provide much protection from a 5 ton Mach 3 mass whose center is occupied by 1-ton of shaped charge and X-liters of unspent fuel. I’m thinking of the Roma here, only on a much larger scale.

OTOH if by some miracle Iowa shoots first, she only has 16 Harpoon to deal with a ship that has over 400 missiles and 7 gun systems designed to shoot them down combined with powerful long-range jammers and chaff of her own. That is the Kirov’s armor. Harpoon’s slow speed works against it here since for OTH shots she may need to have her seeker on long enough for the Russian’s to detect early and give plenty of time for countermeasures. Even if by some strange miracle every defensive gun and every missile misses we know that Harpoon can be spoofed. After all, the USS Wainwright successfully decoyed an attacking Harpoon in 1987 with chaff. That is one of 6 combat firings that I can account for of Harpoon from a surface ship. Of those, 2 were hits (2 Iraqi Osa FAC-M believed sunk) and 3 were misses with 1 decoyed by chaff, the others apparently just missing and 1 unknown but probably a miss. Those are slightly underwhelming statistics as well since the targets of the known misses were hardly capable of putting up a credible defense.

So what if a Harpoon or two does hit a Kirov? Does this immediately imply the nuclear holocaust you predict? This seems unlikely. Kirov is a very big ship and Harpoon, unlike Granit is not designed to penetrate very far into a target before exploding. Harpoon does get its name from its original requirement after all – as a killer of surfaced submarines to be fired from P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft. Later it became a surface-launched Osa-killer. Neither task requires deep penetration. In fact, that would be counter-productive. And with a nuclear plant buried deep inside the hull, aft from the most likely point of missile impact (whose location isn’t hard to deduce), your scenario is unlikely to say the least. If I’m the Russian captain I’m going to turn into the attack anyway to present a smaller target and allow my chaff and jamming a better chance to work, placing those vitals even farther out of reach. One or even several Harpoon “sinking” a target the size of a Kirov is even less likely. You sink ships by letting in water. Harpoon is a lousy way to let in water. That explains why so many AM.39 hits during the Tanker War resulted in so few ships sunk, and why most warships hit by such weapons also survived. If a 3,200 ton frigate can survive 2 AM.39 hits and get to port under her own power it bodes well for a 20,000 ton Kirov and a few Harpoon.

Sure the Iowa and Kirov were designed for different missions. But that’s not the point. The question at hand is which one is more likely to come out on top in a one-on-one slugfest to the death. However unlikely that scenario may be, the question is what it is and begs an answer. When it comes to who is going to shoot first and which is more likely to survive: Iowa vs. 20 Granit or Kirov vs. 16 Harpoon the likely winner seems clear. Kirov has the big eye’s and the long reach and its chances of surviving an attack if it does not shoot first are higher.