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Originally Posted by Rick DeBay
It's like saying I don't believe Galileo, he may have a beef against the church, so all his experiments are ignored.
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Oh BS. I havn't called into doubt "all" of Col Welch's work or anything he has said or done except for this thesis paper.
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Do you disagree with the data that Col Welch examined?
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Yes I do
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Is there a flaw in his analysis?
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Many, And most of it is regurgitation from the Stearman site. Everything from some inflation of various weapon cost such as TacTom. Inflating the contribution of BBs to the rest of the fire plan in various operations cited. Comparing apple and oranges in magazine capacity aboard the various ships IRT precision and dumb rounds and the effects of both.
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Did he make an error in the conclusions he drew from the analysis?
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Yes because he skewed the analysis to favor the outcome that he had from
the beginning. As noted in his abstract statement.
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This study was undertaken with the realization that my son, Specialist Adam
Lloyd Welch, and son-in-law, Infantry Second Lieutenant Andrew White, may somedayrequire timely, accurate and lethal Naval Surface Fire Support – the kind of fire support that comes only from a gun. It is my desire that this study stimulates serious action to create a viable and effective naval fire support capability within our Navy to support Soldiers and Marines.
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Nah, he wasn't looking for the best solution based on the data present. He was looking for data that fit his "We need Battleships/large guns" outlook.
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If no one can find error, then they must accept that it is a valid solution. Unless you disagree with the scientific method, in which case we have to back up to before Aristotle to find an argumentative basis.
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Lots of error. And we don't need to go back to Aristotle just every other study done on NSFS and Fire Support in Amphibious operations conducted in the last 50 years.
90% of this stuff was gone over by M-21, Rick and Myself a few years ago.
Want to go over it again? or You could just read the various BB reactivation threads