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QUOTE=ace16807;444364]I think the ROCA will give a hell of a defense, partly because it means a lot more than it did in '49. Between the period that they fled to now, the population is much more patriotic than they were 50 some odd years before. In truth, if China wanted to invade Taiwan, they cold very well do it, but the cost of doing so would most likely deter them from trying. If Taiwan is going down, they will go down hard.
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I wonder if this is in fact the case. Most things that I have read on a possible Taiwan/Mainland scenario question the fighting spirit and ability of the ROCA. I know that this is only a bit of anecdotal evidence and may well not represent the true situation, but quite a few of my friends are from Taiwan and most of them have passports from some pretty weird countries. They got them to avoid conscription. I dont know how widespread that sort of thing is, but it isn't really confidence building. The impression that I get from my amateur following of this issue is that the Taiwanese are placing too much of the burden of their own defense on the US.
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Not to mention, it is incredibly hard to make an amphibious landing on the coast. They PLA would hit the coast, which is difficult in the first place, (Who was it that said have you seen the defenses they have) then they would immediately hit mountains, and I do mean mountains. Not to mention, the entire coastline seems to be geared for defense, (I'm currently visiting Taiwan, so my memory of the coast is pretty fresh). I was along the eastern coast, and I specifically remembered identifying how it seems every bit of the land between the coast and the mountains could easily be adapted for defense. If D-day is considered a difficult landing, landing on Taiwan would be hell.
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Agreed, an amphibious operation is very, very difficult to pull off. I remember from my time in Taiwan as a kid that every time we went to the beach there were all kinds of cool bunkers and stuff. It seems that the Taiwanese have had quite a long time to prepare for that sort of attack. Im pretty sure that any Chinese invasion would have to be on the west coast though although your observations about local terrain are pretty much how I remember it as well. There are quite a few musings out there on PLA operations other(or perhaps in addition to) than a traditional amphibious landing. I wonder how well prepared Taiwan would be for a decapitation strike(or if such a thing could be done at all).