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Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers
The one thing wrong with your thesis here is that the rest of Asia has not forgiven Japan either. The US will not go home if for any other reason than to prevent a war between Korea and Japan. Korean hatre of the Japanese surpasses that of the Chinese.
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Unlike China Korea does not have an alternative route to market except to go past Japan, or pending unification and current defense issues to the North. I don't think South Korea will go to war willingly against Japan until Kim is 10 years dead.
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China and the US will never be allies, just as India and the US also will never be allies.
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China and India have both been allies in the past- it just takes the right enemy.
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The trust is not there. At best, India will occupy the same position China held during the Cold War but will never agree to American participation nor leadership in her sphere of influence ... and China knows this.
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I don't agree with your read of the situation. India is actively courting the US because trust or not the offset vs China and the money makes an allaince attractive. Plus the massive Indian migration to the US is building increasing ties.
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A question for you. We're seeing the end of DXP's momentum. How much further do you expect to see it? Though you are not a China watcher, your impressions of an informed man do give an appraisal of how much more of DXP's legacy that we can expect from China.
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I think it depends on what part of his legacy your talking. Economically- several more years until enough scandals and currency/environmental pressures cause the CCP to blink. Vis a vis Taiwan and the US- just until Taiwan makes a bid for statehood. As long as both Chinas enjoy economic prosperity I think it will hold. If one or the other suffers a serious down turn then things get dicey if politicians start looking for an external scapegoat.
Militarily- its been dead for several years. As soon as the nuke espionage scandal surfaced the writing was on the walls. Since then China has taken several deliberate steps to place it self in opposition to the US. It's made the internet fan boys and homegrown nationalist happy but is a strategic mistake IMHO.