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Originally Posted by Inst
That's my problem with your perception. It looks to the short-term, and is based on a bipolar or unipolar world view. The goal of your hypothetical government planner is to replace the United States as the pre-eminent world power.
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Re-read what I wrote I do not have China making a bid for global hegemony, rather Asian Hegemony. China will not in the long term comfortably abide an Asian system that places Japan as a co-equal after the Americans eventually go home. There is simply to much history to forgive when the Japanese haven't even asked for forgiveness in the first place. And thats before economic competition and resource supplies, in this context making statements and taking actions that benefit Japan and reduce China's freedom of action by keeping the US in the area, US arms flowing to Japan, US influence in the area and keeping the Chinese out of the western arms markets as a buyer make zero sense long or short term.
If China's goal is to keep the US in the area it is better to do it as an ally, where Washington works on behalf of China than in an adversarial role where Washington works on behalf Tokyo, New Delhi and Taipei.
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Zraver, first, I have problems myself with Chinese policy. Deng XiaopIng's (邓小平, given name, oddly, is small + peace or tranquility) admonition was to, paraphrased, bide their time and hide their capabilities.
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Great and very sage advice- that seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Going back to your warring states anology. The current CCP/PLA leadership are acting like the states the Qin eventually subjugated, not acting like the Qin. They are beating thier chests and posturing like an angry silverback fearsome looking but ultimately still just a beast not located at the top of the food chain. And yet again- what has that accomplished?
The US is stronger than ever in Asia without concluding a single new major alliance outside of Pakistan. The US is friends with just about every major player in the area greatly reducing China's freedom of action without doing anything aggressive. Even if every one of the nations simply refuses to get involved China is still forced to take on the US without allies- US win. China talks about the string of pearls around India, but what of the string around China? South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
If Chinese leaders had simply walked small and played meek over the last 20 years overall China would be in a much better position to assert itself now then it currently is.