Quote:
Originally Posted by WaltzingMatilda
Ramming an EP-3, denying port calls, harassing carriers, and issuing inflammatory statements certainly don't do wonders for Chinese relations, but they are hardly the sorts of actions that are going to lead to an erosion of security on a scale your talking about...mere pot shots. A coalition of major and minor powers hasn't emerged in the wake of these incidents, and China's economic growth and military modernization proceed apace.
|
I would dissagree, the PRC went from the 3rd most powerful air force in Asia (by dint of size) after the US and Japan to no better than 6th after the US, India, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. For all her naval building she is falling behind as the other major nations in the area move to match and as the lesser ones are forced into Washington's orbit.
Inst,
Quote:
I know I annoyed Xinhui out of this conversation, and perhaps also OoE, but mind if I ask a question?
zraver, is what you're asking of China submission? That is, it behaves by international norms and exists solely within the American-lead international system, tooting the American horn when it's asked?
China has a few major territorial disputes. One is on the Sino-Indian border. One is the island of Taiwan. One is the East China Sea natural gas fields. One is the Spratly Islands. If China were to do as you say, how many of these disputes would be resolved agreeably?
|
Lets for a second pretend that I am a high muckety-muck in the CCP/PLA and I am in charge of engineering China's emergence on the world stage with the end result of being a world power.
The things I have to do
1- Get the arms and technology embargo lifted. France is ready willing just not able to transfer me technology by the boatload.
2- Establish a sound economic and political base
3- Get the population issue under control
4- Build or buy international good will.
5- build up domestic technology invention and innovation capabilities.
6- Keep the US and Japan in the dark about my real goals until I catch up and its to late for them to rebuild thier military and technology lead.
From 1989-2007 was plenty of time to achieve all of these. China has managed just 1/2 of two of them (economy and technology). 1-2-4 all benefit from "submission" to Washington. Things that really wouldn't hurt China an din fact would advance her cause. Moratorium on executions, more liberal policies for Tibetans, Uzbeks, Christians, and Falon Guang members. seeking UN resolution of the Spratly's issue. Anti-piracy patrols, backing the US in the UN (for other concessions from the US), talk about the possibility of non-reunification with Taiwan and the need for every people to have self determination (within limits that shield possessions in Tibet and central Asia), not even one provocation of the US military. Invite the US military in to observe and even give pointers on the right way to do things. None of this says I have to stop building my military after all to the south I have to worry about a "rouge" nuclear state in India, I do have a huge coast line to guard etc. I make China the model nation and damn the short term costs the only goal is to keep America fooled and actually doing what I want (dropping the embargo, WTO membership, favored nation trade status, reduced American military presence in Japan etc) until I can deliver a fait accompli where the US and Japan have no choice but to step aside as China emerges as the "power player" in the region.
In other words get the cat to eat the peppers.
OoE,
I don't see the difference between thier thinking from 89 onward and our own.
Quote:
|
The clashes happened in the 70s and 80s. I don't see the Philippines nor Indonesia increasing their naval presence to directly challenge the Chinese. In fact, quite the opposite as the Indians will tell you about the String of Pearls.
|
The string of pearls like Prestor John, and the Holy Grail is more myth than fact and it is not a serious challenge to the Indian navy. India's counter stroke is far more effective. Increasing ties with the US and de-facto US acceptance of India as a nuclear weapon state.