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Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers
Z,
Andy has provided you with references and food for thought. The simple fact is that the majority of the Chinese are still worried about day-to-day living to be distracted by Taiwan. The sons may want to volunteer for an invasion force but the father is still worried about getting tomorrow's food on the table.
The PLA is not raising armies for Taiwan nor is there a drive for such.
I am guilty of pushing that view mainly because I am interested in how they think they can do the job.
But the sad fact is that the CCP and the PLA is not ready nor willing to take Taiwan.
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I think me and Andy were talking past each other, but to the same over all ideas. let me see if I can phrase this right.
Elements of the CCP have decided to create the belief in an external threat where none need exist in order to distract domestic attention away from certain failures internally.
Inst,
Will read it here in a minute if it is in English. I will start taking Chinese (4 semester total when I am done) in the fall to meet the foreign language requirement of my degree
WaltzingMatilda,
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China certainly could and should focus more on internal issues, but its ability to do so—much like any other state—is also affected by its external environment. Consider the problems posed by geography for Chinese defense planners. China’s inland borders are approximately 22,000 kilometers in length, and rest astride fourteen other countries, while its 18,0000-kilometer coastline offers astounding views of an American lake. With such long vulnerable borders, “outward focus” isn’t simply a matter of choice; it’s a necessity.
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I think that is only a half truth if you look at credible threats. On the Asian mainland China does not really face a military threat. Its biggest threats are from illegal immigration and smuggling which are best countered by light infantry border forces. The only 2 technological threats China faces are India and Russia, the former lacks the ability to move far or fast and is hamstrung by the pro-Chinese lobby in its own government. The second has no need to expand but may well be worried about Chinese expansion to reclaim historically Chinese territory now filled with Chinese re-immigrants and even new sources of materials.
Now lets compare what China has done with the Siberia problem vs what they have done vs the American lake.
While China has quietly begun building a force that could if it had to move beyond its borders as an instrument of national power. They have kept quiet about it- they have not thrown the ZTZ-99 in Russia's face or made belligerent threats that certain parts of Siberia are really stolen parts of China and that China must be whole. Instead they have lulled the bear to if not sleep then a very relaxed state to the point where immigration now threatens to make Chinese the dominant language once again in certain areas of Russia. They have as it were gotten the cat to eat the pepper.
vs America China seems to make mistake after mistake. China's ultimate rival in the region isn't the US, besides Saipan we don't have a physical stake in the area and trade with everyone. China's real rival is Japan, South Korea and the rest of Asia will favor who ever is dominant and Taiwan is a side show that will be taken care by the economic ties between the 2 China's at some point. But Japan with its location astride trade routes, historical animosity and the ghosts of 35 million plus victims is a real threat. So what based on what China did in Siberia should the PRC have done, they should have lulled the US into complacency. Made us feel that they were on the same page in the region as the US and Japan. Let the US redirect assets away from the region and quietly encouraged a reduced US military presence in Japan. Then quietly built a force that could credibly challenge the JMSDF.
Did they do that? No- instead belligerent statements, brinkmanship and grandstanding have been the order of the day. Has this helped China at all externally? I don't think so the JMSDF is now the second strongest navy in Asia with a massive technology lead, the JSDAF has F-15J's and is pushing for stealth fighters and a building American ABM system that credibly threatens to remove China's nuclear deterrent. Instead of sprinkling the pepper on the cats backs they shoved a bag full of peppers in the cats (who happen to be lions and tigers) faces and yelled we are going to make you eat peppers. The cats of course popped out the claws and said oh yea, try it I dare you.
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Regional stability via the deterrence of external threats is part and parcel to continued economic growth and—by extension—the preservation of domestic political order. Past Chinese experience has been particularly instructive in this regard…wouldn’t you agree?
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I do agree which is why I see China's actions along in the region as nonsensical. They have not deterred threats but created them. The only way China's actions make sense is if the powers that be feel the increased regional tension is worth an internal domestic payoff.