Originally Posted by JohnFlint1985

I think I have to explain my personal understanding of this theory.
I am talking from a position of an American and not world so my opinion is obviously biased. So please bare with me.

In 21 century there will be a few major threats to USA around the world.

1. I think China will certainly be a major one: economically, military and politically. I am not sure if ideology will play a role , but China will certainly try ti reassert it's positions in Pacific and thus create tensions with the rest of the countries over there.

2. I think Fundamental Islam in different countries will continue it's rise and will require a lot of commitment, money and brains to deal with. It is not just a religious revival but also socio-economic one, so to counter it we are required to pull some new ways and ideas from our side. Which so far have not emerged in my opinion.

3. Europe is having a major transition right now. But I think it will only lead to more problems. Europe is becoming socialistic, demographically dying, rid of religion and ideology continent. There is no sense of direction and sense of alliance over there. Europeans are much more concerned with their comfort level and social benefits than anything else. So in my mind they are soft and weak in too many respects. USA is seen nothing but culture-less bully and not as a friend. It is of course because New Europe only semi ideology is a Neo-Gaullist French ideas of a "Third Pole" which will be between USA and USSR. USSR is no more , but the "Third Pole " is very much alive and pulled other European countries into it's ideology.

4. Russia - Is a sick man of Europe and world: politically, population wise, disease wise and military wise. Russia is also dying demographically. It has the fastest in the world AIDS epidemic (faster than in Africa). Men have an average life expectancy 58.6 years. Country has 70% abortion rate. It's fertility rate is 1,2 - which is substantially lower than reproduction rate. On top of everything Russia's neighbors are dreaming of a day when they will be able to claim it's resources. It's military is ridden with problems and is not considered any serious threat by any means. Even nuclear forces are slowly rusting away. One other "small" thing. The only regions in Russia which show demographic growth are Islamic regions. So we can see an Islamic Power instead of Christian over there in 40 years time.

This is my theory in a very short form.