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Ray · 11-27-2007, 00:36 AM

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The Middle East as Moscow's ticket to global relevance

By Konstantin Eggert
Commentary by
Monday, November 26, 2007

Russia's foreign policy has acquired a certain swagger during Vladimir Putin's presidency. In Moscow these days it is fashionable to talk about the "rebirth of Russian power" and "doing away with the legacy of the 1990s," a decade when Russia supposedly played second fiddle to the Americans and Europeans in global affairs. Speaking earlier this year at an annual security conference in Munich, Putin said that his country's foreign policy is and will remain "independent." But what exactly does independence mean in an increasingly interdependent world? And what does it mean for the Middle East?

"Independence" in these circumstances means "independence" from Western, especially American, influence. This message plays well to Russia's domestic audience, ever nostalgic for the Soviet glories and deeply anti-American. With regard to the Middle East this means inviting Hamas to Moscow, continuing arms sales to Syria, carping on about the United States' failure in Iraq, and above all, acting as a chief international advocate for Iran.

Putin, always astute with regard to public opinion, plays well to anti-American prejudices in the Middle East, especially during his recent tour of the Gulf states. The message is cemented by a new satellite channel Rusiya al-Yawm - an Arabic version of Russia Today, a Kremlin-sponsored propaganda station.

There are underlying reasons for this behavior. They have more to do with what goes on in Russia's neighborhood than with Russia's interests in the Middle East, which, compared to those of the US, remain relatively modest. After the 2004 "orange revolution" in Ukraine, Russia's political class began to perceive the US as the chief cause of Russia's waning influence over the former Soviet republics. The Kremlin is convinced that the US is out to squeeze Russia out of the post-Soviet space and, if the appropriate chance presents itself, to push through regime change in Moscow itself. Hence the unofficial doctrine of creating as many problems for Washington as possible, in order to weaken America's focus on the former USSR and show a bit of muscle too.

This trend is strengthened by the conviction that the current American administration is so deeply bogged down in Iraq and so unpopular at home, that it makes the task of checking US power easier.

At the same time, Putin is careful not to overstep the invisible boundary that separates competition from open conflict. He knows only too well that Russia's political and economic resources are vastly inferior to those of the US, especially if it should come to a political standoff in the Middle East. So, on the one hand, the Russian president goes to Tehran to talk with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - something no other Group of Eight leader would do today. But on the other hand, he quickly invites Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Moscow in order to share his Iranian impressions with him. As always with Putin, he leaves everyone guessing whether he has passed on some important message or was just balancing the act.

Putin seems to have a weak spot for Israel, partly because most ex-KGB people are in awe of Israel's muscular policies and power, and partly because the number of Israelis with Russian roots has become a political factor that Moscow would be unwise to ignore.

However, what is the substance of Russia's Middle East policy? In fact, Moscow's biggest desire (to use the words of a senior European diplomat in Moscow) "is to keep a place at the top table of world politics." Being active in the Middle East provides one such opportunity at very little expense because Russia's real political and economic interests lie elsewhere, namely in the post-Soviet space, Europe and China. The Middle East hardly makes it even to the top five of Russia's foreign policy priorities.

Russia's favorite scenario for the region is for low intensity crises to continue as long as possible without them spiraling out of control. Whether on the Iranian nuclear program, Lebanon or the Palestinian issue, one thing Moscow dislikes is taking decisions, especially on whether to side with the West or to confront it. The former is unacceptable, the latter impossible. Taking a quiet step aside might turn out to be the most probable scenario.

Konstantin Eggert is Moscow bureau editor for the BBC Russian Service and member of the

Royal Institute of International Affairs. This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-

international.org, an online newsletter.
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