Quote:
Originally Posted by Parihaka
I've never been sure how America keeps the straits open without having some sort of buffer zone on Iran's coastline which in my mind would mean feet on the ground. Is the air scenario premised on Iran folding quickly and agreeing to terms?
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No,
Iran only has about 100 truly capably long range anti-shipping missiles that can reach the shipping lanes
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middl...ormuz_2004.jpg
This is why Abu Musa and its sisters are important without them Iran's effective missile inventory is reduced by 90%. The 3 off shore platforms used by the IIRG provide the mid course correction, if they are removed Iran loses its ability to actively track targets with its best crews.
If we can reduce the missile threat we still have to deal with 1000 boghammers, 55 FACs, a very credible 1-2 mission airforce, 3 Kilo submarines plus 10 smaller vessels, and the worlds 4th largest sea mine capacity. We can do it, but we need a minimum of 3 carriers (prefer 4) in the region plus thier amphib compliments, the Ohio and most of the B-2 and F-22 fleets. the USAF assets in the region can't be used offensively inside Iran so says the GCC, unless of course Iran follows through and attacks them.
In our favor vs this horde is that Iran can only target inbound (empty) tankers unless she wants to commit environmental suicide by dumping a few million barrels of oil along its coast. I don't really have a way to sim this out but the margin of victory or defeat is timing.
Iran will know if we forward deploy B-2's from Missouri, but we might be able to sneak 3 carriers into the region. The trick is can we get the B-2's from Missouri to Iran for thier first mission undetected? We have to assume that Iran has a robust humint capability in the area watching/listening to the run ways and counting planes.
The US strike if it happens, and if it achieves tactical and strategic surprise has about 2-8 hours to cripple the bulk of Iran's capabilities, then 2 weeks to defeat the rest of it.