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Originally Posted by astralis
zraver,
that hegemony was established at the yalta conference and as the result of the red army overrunning the nazi empire, years before the USSR exploded its first nuke. after it exploded its first nuke, did it massively expand its hegemony across europe or asia?
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It kept the world silent during the Prague Spring, and Hungary, it let them shoot down our recon planes many times, let them openly arm our enemie sin Korea and Vietnam, meant they could send small groups into direct conflict with us in the skies over Korea etc.
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whether that will cause them to re-think their policies is another matter.
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Of course it will, after all if thier current schema no longer works then they have to try something new. We may not like what they try, but we might. We do know that we don't like what they are doing now.
I don't, iran has to many exploitable internal divisions and has been targeted for client status by another major power. it is only a matter of time
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that was after four years of war and millions of deaths. had the spring offensive of 1918 succeeded, or if the americans did not join in, france would have thrown in the towel. a blockade cannot win a war by itself.
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I disagree
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removing the prospect of iranian nukes is comparatively easy. as you say, we can either air strike them until they squeal and/or blockade them. however, doing that will only represent a tactical victory in the global WoT. i'm looking for the absolutely strategic victory that will come if iran can either evolve or be regime-changed to our side.
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Iran is not part of GWOT, taking on Iran directly with armed might means ignoring the nukes and figuring out how to prevent an oil blockade, this is where Iran has placed her hopes and it is a so far effective form of blackmail.
But the balance of power is shifting back to the US after swinging towards iran over the last several years. If current trends continue the US will be the strongest it has been vs Iran since 2003.
1- Iraq's Shia are increasingly turning on the Mahdi Militias. If this continues and results in an effective defeat for them then Iran looses it's primary means of cutting the Basra Road without a full scale invasion of Iraq by regular forces (a death sentence under US controlled skies)
2- The USS Ohio, the most powerful non-nuclear strategic platform of all time is now operational. her 154 Tomahawks can cripple Iran country wide in the opening moments of a war.
3- If recent reports out of Syria and Lebanon are correct then new wide spectrum jamming assets can blind even the newest Russian missiles and radars and even cause a cascading failure of most electronic communications media.
4- Aegis has demonstrated the ability to hit both a sea skimming and ballistic target at the same time.
5- building internal pressures between the IIRG and the clerics and within the IIRG itself induce friction.
6- AIM120D will begin entering squadron service in 2 months giving the FA-18 Hornets and Super Hornets absolute superiority over Iranian fighters deep into Iran.
AMRAAM: Deploying & Developing America's Medium-Range Air-Air Missile (updated) (defense procurement, military acquisition, defence purchasing)