That was an excellent analysis of Iran's leverage should they acquire nukes. Equally, a powerful description of the CURRENT state of affairs. I've said elsewhere that Iranian miscreance in Iraq are already "acts of war". We seem reluctant to use that justification for pulling the trigger though I'm not entirely certain why.
Zraver, you're correct to assume Iranian nukes immediately confers hegemon status of the most interesting region on earth. I'm sure that Astralis would agree that the leverage assumed by Iranian nukes would be "rationally" employed. Clearly, there's only one way to view that application. Leverage to pursue de-stabilizing courses of action with complete operational freedom. It's the only "rational" explanation for the pursuit of nuclear weapons by Iran given the associated risks that they're, to date, running successfully.
Iran will attempt to justify the acquisition of nukes, after the fact, as self-defense. Until that moment, such a rationale wouldn't justify Turkey, S.A. or Egypt doing the same. After that moment, EVERYBODY within that region will truly be justified in openly pursuing nuclear weapons.
Astralis, I've called your perspective, "risk-laden" before. Not with Zraver's eloquence. Those are the consequences- rather nicely put by him. That, in addition to his excellent essay on the IRGC/al Quds/Sepah-e-Pasdaran fabric underlying Iran's executive, ministries, and economy.
Zraver, when you told that story about helping the sectarian division of Iraq...Dude, I want to PARTY with you.
"They need to be told that we will not do Iraq right, but that we will actively seek the emulation of the sectarian and ethnic division they helped foster in Iraq."
Ballsy, in the extreme and I LOVE it. I often fantasized about retreating to Kurdistan while the southern two-thirds of Iraq are turned in Iran's tar-baby. With partition, a favorite of Astralis, we just may be able to engineer (with some help from our GCC and S.A. buddies) such a condition. You'd lose the Basra fields for some time, but it might be possible to contain the ruckus to Sunnistan and shiastan with any residual bleedover as likely to fall in Iran as anywhere.
Sweet.
An "A" for audacious thinking.