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Originally Posted by astralis
what i'm not sure about is,
how are they going to use a nuke to blackmail the region? from their mindset, the biggest advantage to having a nuke is being able to escape a US war of choice: they can see the difference in what iraq got and what north korea got.
at the same time, NK has detonated a (very very weak) nuke. the most it got were humanitarian aid and some pledges of no attack (not that the US was eager in the first place, not with seoul under NK artillery range). then it had to by and large give up its nuclear program, or at the very least hobble it. in short, for all that time and effort, NK got very little.
what's iran going to get?
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Nuclear weapons means they are free from any risk of direct confrontation with the US, while thier oil makes sure sanctions won't last. Thats the real lesson they gained from Iraq, that sanctions cannot las tin the long run and that the UN as a policing force is powerless. Nuclear weapons also forces the US from the region becuase nuclear powers dare not go to war with each other. This means from the first weaponized Iranian bomb they become hegemon in the gulf. They will then be free to marginalize Saudi Arabia and the other GCC and make them dance to their tune in OPEC or risk Iranian meddling and subversion of thier regimes while Iran sits safely behind a nuclear shield. And the US won't be able to stop them, what are we gonna do lob nukes at Tehran for the eventual successful assassination of every leader or regime friendly to us in the gulf? They will also be free to act even more aggressively to thwart Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts with the ever present threat of a Hezzbollah bomb or dirty bomb.
This then is the stakes, Iran has declared itself "all in" be it for national power, bringing back the 12th Iman, or what ever sub groups rational is, they all want nukes. Since Iran has demonstrated a willful disregard for civilization should we let them to comb through the deck until the think they have a winning hand? Iran needs to be made to understand that thier current course cannot and will not be tolerated. We need to stop the baby steps and isolate Iran completely.
Russia can be bought off, Putin doesn't want Iran with nukes thats why he is calling for the expansion of the INF and withholding nuclear fuel. He would give us the vote in the UN in trade for the missile shield. China likewise can only push so hard, they need access to our markets and a coercive tariff or the threat of such would let china know that the days of the PRC shielding Iran are over.
astralis,
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you misunderstand. war is an option which should only be used if the mullahs demonstrate irrationality and are on the verge of getting nuclear weapons. that's not currently the case for either postulate.
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I think your timing is off by several years, Iran is acting as if it is at war limited though t may be. They have uniformed personnel killing US, Iraqi and UK servicemen and civilians. They finance groups that actively block peace efforts and keep millions of Palestinians and Israelis locked in tension. It is high time that we accept that war has already been declared and begin to act accordingly. A total economic blockade is only the first step, it places Iran in the uncomfortable and untenable possition of having to choose a total war they cannot win, or nuclear catipulation.
We must make sure that Iran knows the world has decided to eat the costs of oil in the short term to stop Iran in the long term and that no amount of missile strikes on the GCC or blockade efforts will achieve anything but an apocalyptic reckoning that will reduce Iran's critical infrastructure and industries to cinders and foster the rise of tribal groups in now isolated parts of the country. They need to be told that we will not do Iraq right, but that we will actively seek the emulation of the sectarian and ethnic division they helped foster in Iraq.
Only when the costs have gotten to high to bear can moderate factions that are willing to give up nukes in order to keep thier wealth and power have a reasonable chance or taking thier long knives to the throats of the radicals.