Quote:
Originally Posted by Maggot
Yes China would suffer huge casualties in an all out invasion of Taiwan, but when was the last time you saw China particularly concerned with casualties.
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The 1979 1st Sino-Vietnam War in which the Chinese themselves admitted to 30,000 casualties. It was a particular sting about Chinese military prowness and a great lost of face (I'm sure you know what that means).
So much so that they avoided the big time disasters and fight to the death battles during the 1984 2nd Sino-VN War.
Alas, the Tianamen Incident of 89 showed the populace no longer the blind obedient masses that Mao once controlled. The Chinese Communist Party will not survive a march of 30,000 mothers demanding answers for the sons they lost on Taiwan.
So, the CCP has one go and one go only at winning Taiwan. They will not be able to survive the backlash much like the Argentine Junta did not survive their backlash.
As for Taiwan itself, it still resolves around numbers. The RoCA fields 400,000+ troops. The PLA at its current best can only manage a single corps onto the island ... and that is after their best divisions get turned into minced meat pushing their follow up forces through. After that, their landing forces are spent. Return trips for more than a division is extremely unlikely and more likely a single regiment or brigade.
More to the point, Taiwan itself is divided into 3 main areas, each defended by a regforce corps and backed up by 2 or more reserved corps. If the stars are right and Pamela Anderson was in the mood to screw the RoCA CoS, the PLA might be able to defeat a single regforce corps ... but that is only if Pamela Anderson is in the mood.