kato

No problems there really. Remember, Europe has its own 128 SLBMs, plus the French ALCMs. Plus of course the German tactical nuke strike bomber squadron still equipped with US B61 bombs.

I don't really see it anyway. Potential conflict with Russia, that is. Putin is trying to garner votes for his party (since he himself can't be elected again), and does this by playing "hardball". There's nothing realistically to gain for Russia from war, even ideologically (no "freeing oppressed workers in other countries"). Overall, we're looking at a longer time frame anyway, more than Putin - or Merkel, probably - will see in power anyway. There's no one suddenly seriously upgrading their forces with enough power to rule the Baltic Sea - not that any of the countries involved would be crazy enough to try to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet or the German 2nd Flotilla (or both combined!) in that theater anyway.

I see far more volatile situations in other positions in Europe still - Belarus for example, i'd still bet on a Russian or EU "intervention" of some kind there within the next 5 years. Poland's relationship towards the West is also kinda shaky under their current government - which will change too of course sometime in the future, when the voters tire of them (they largely already have become tired with "the twins" at the voter base). Estonia, in my opinion, is provoking a bit too much lately - not just Russia, but a lot of their actions only earn them shaking heads in Western Europe as well. Greek Cyprus is getting the same for refusing to fusion with Turkish Cyprus, pretty much a scandal, as it was required for their EU accession. Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia are still and again a potential hotbed for conflict - not so much versus Serbia, but in particular with regard to Greece and Bulgaria. And of course the other little things, like the Russia-Ukraine-Transnistria-Moldavia-Romania relations, or the Caucasus.