ray
A very powerful analysis. Has this subject been discussed in the WAB to any extent prior to April, which is when I came on board? I don't want to plow old ground, although this paper is only days old.
There is much to comment, especially the paper's main thesis that an attack on Iran is very close barring their agreement to suspend nuclear weapon activities. Very convincing analysis and evidence.
As I was reading and thinking about the certainty that Iran is also reading this and similar papers, it occured to me that perhaps Iran is planning to go as far as they can, timewise, with nuclear enrichment before finally calling it quits. They might also be hoping against hope that they may even buy enough time to complete work on a deliverable nuke.
I think Iran is watching US moves very carefully looking for that moment when it appears their time is nearly up. That moment will come when the US states in plain terms no further negotiations with Iran will take place. The Israelis make an excellent point, as quoted in the paper, that negotiations merely give Iran breathing space.
Quote:
Clearly, at the moment, we are headed down the path of use of force. The slow-motion diplomacy of the West simply does not match the rapid development of Iran's nuclear capacity and the closing window when Iran's upgraded air defenses will be in place.
… We are headed on a pathway now that will lead to the use of force. We don't want it to be that way. It doesn't have to be that way. There are alternatives, but the clock is ticking.68
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