Anatomy of A Tribal Revolt
From Lt. Col. Kilcullen. There's a lot here to read and digest. For a novice to the role of a tribal society, this article is tremendously enlightening.
What comes through the loudest is the need and growing ability to capitalize upon unanticipated opportunities. The anbari tribes have presented us with a gift of limited duration but potentially broad application. Our troops at the "grass-roots" level are becoming sufficiently attuned culturally to co-opt these structures. The tribal network is communicating the effectiveness of cooperation throughout the nation-first, into other sunni-dominated regions, but now also (slowly) into SHIA tribal structures.
Kilcullen reasonably suggests that a revolt of the center against the extremist sunni/baathist/AQI and Jaat-i-mahdi on the extreme edges of the political spectrum may be underway.
Yes, he points to numerous possibilities why this process may yet be de-railed but the linkage of this phenomena into the shia tribal structure in the south may largely mitigate against the pending departure of the British, for instance. Kilcullen accurately points to the "force multipliers" at play through the integration of the sunni tribes into the security network and projects the same possibilities further south within the shia tribes.
Courtesy of Kilcullen and SWJ.