I'd bet on the Victory, but I wouldn't give odds, I'll tell you that.
Because the Constitution is simply the last word in fighting-sail frigates, and a dam' tough customer.
Too many 'ifs' for the Yankee to come out on top, BUT...if their luck was running high, if they were sharp and the English were dull, if the wind was 'just so, and IF early on some miracle golden BB had somehow managed to hurt Victory long enough (a jammed rudder, a wounded mast, captain goes down, etc.) for Constitution to get in some good rakes to even it up...
But here's the thing: NO captain could or would count on ANY of that happening to risk his ship in a long-odds prayer-for-the-win battle. Constitution would fire any long guns at max range, and haul away on her best point of sailing and consider herself lucky to live through the encounter and heroic for even getting a hit on that behemoth.