World Affairs Board - View Single Post - Let's keep an eye on the up-coming Russian-China military Exercise

Ray · 08-15-2007, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Iran's Leader Courts Russia-China Security Group, Worrying U.S.

By Henry Meyer

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will push his country's bid to join a Central Asian security group, set up by Russia and China to counter U.S. influence, when he attends a summit in Kyrgyzstan tomorrow.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization angered the U.S. by inviting Iran to become an observer in 2005 and Ahmadinejad called for closer ties to the group when he attended last year's summit in Shanghai. Kyrgyzstan is hosting the one-day meeting this year in its capital Bishkek.

``It would be a political and economic breakthrough for Iran if it became a full member,'' said Radzhab Safarov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Iranian Research. ``The West is very concerned about this and is doing everything to ensure Iran remains on the sidelines,'' said the analyst, who has close ties to the Iranian government.

The U.S., whose relations with Russia have deteriorated, accuses Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons and of sponsoring terrorism. Ahmadinejad, pronounced ah-ma-deeen-ah- ZHAD, has said the Central Asian group can help fend off ``outside interference'' in the region.

China said at the group's summit last year it would be premature to allow Iran to become a member. Along with Pakistan, India and Mongolia, Iran has observer status in the six-member SCO, set up in 2001 as a security body with the stated goal of strengthening regional cooperation and development and combating terrorism.

Iran `Disappointed'

At a meeting of SCO foreign ministers ahead of the Aug. 16 heads of state summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that observer countries were expressing ``disappointment'' at being limited to a ``ceremonial presence.''

Lavrov said the group, which includes Russia, China and the four Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, should ``activate'' its contacts with potential new members.

In an indication that Russia wants to build a broader front against the U.S., Lavrov also said at the meeting July 9 that American plans to set up a missile-defense shield in eastern Europe would affect the entire central Asian region.

The Russian daily Kommersant suggested in a commentary that Russia, amid Cold War-style tensions with the U.S. provoked by NATO expansion and the missile-defense row, could ``revive'' the idea of Iranian membership of the SCO.

Yet observers say that Russia and China aren't willing to risk a rupture with the U.S. by inviting its arch-enemy into their club. Instead, they might promote closer ties that fall short of actual membership.

Powerful Player

Admitting Iran, which is such a powerful regional player and is under UN sanctions over its disputed nuclear program, ``would create more trouble than it's worth,'' said Michael Denison, a Central Asia analyst for the U.K.-based security research company Control Risks.

Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Hui said Aug. 10 that Iran had ``contributed a lot'' to the SCO as an observer.

``The SCO isn't a closed organization. It will develop and expand,'' Li said at a briefing in Beijing. He added, though, that the group first needed to change its rules before admitting new members.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohamed Ali Hosseini did not return phone calls seeking comment.

Russia, which is competing with the U.S. and Europe for access to Central Asia's oil and gas reserves, insists it is willing to cooperate in important areas such as increasing stability in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan border the country, as do observer members Pakistan and Iran.

U.S., EU Contacts

Lavrov called the SCO a ``non-confrontational entity'' that should step up its contacts with ``players from outside the region,'' including the U.S. and EU.

The Chinese foreign ministry official, Li, said the group's ``primary focus'' was maintaining stability in the region and that it wanted to cooperate in Afghanistan on fighting drugs smuggling and terrorism.

Still, the SCO is clearly positioning itself as a counterweight to the United States, said Andrew Kuchins of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

``Russia and China never tire of reiterating their commitment to a multipolar world and opposition to a unipolar one,'' he said in a telephone interview. ``The SCO is a manifestation of that in Eurasia.''

In a move that dismayed the United States, the SCO in 2005 called for a timetable to end the U.S. military presence in Central Asia. Within six months, Uzbekistan ordered out U.S. forces based at its Khanabad airbase. The U.S. has a remaining airbase in Kyrgyzstan used to support operations in neighboring Afghanistan.

The SCO might offer Iran associate membership, allowing Iranian representatives to sit in on all discussions, or promote ad hoc cooperation on issues such as Afghanistan and energy, said Denison of Control Risks.

Russia's aim is to ``keep Iran interested but denying it full rights,'' he said in a telephone interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Bishkek through the Moscow newsroom at

hmeyer4@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: August 15, 2007 02:46 EDT
Bloomberg.com: Eastern Europe

It sure is disturbing for western powers to find that Iran is seeking a greater more involved role in the SCO and both Russia and China being vague and yet hinting that such an eventuality may come to pass.

Indeed, if it does, the area (CAR) and its oil and gas resources will be lost to the influence of the western powers, apart from being able to monitor Russian and Chinese from this area.