World Affairs Board - View Single Post - Let's keep an eye on the up-coming Russian-China military Exercise

Ray · 08-13-2007, 13:03 PM

Quote:

Shanghai cooperation, military overtones

SCO war games indicate that the Kremlin may be seeking stronger military ties within the group as a counterbalance to Western pressures on missile defense and other security issues.

Commentary by Sergei Blagov in Moscow for ISN Security Watch (13/08/07)

Member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have repeatedly pledged not to form a military bloc or band together against any nation; however, the group's major war games this week appear to come as an indication that its agenda is becoming increasingly security-oriented.

The 9-17 August "Peace Mission 2007" in Chebarkul in Russia's Ural Mountains region of Chelyabinsk, brings together 4,000 troops from SCO countries, including more than 2,000 from Russia and some 1,600 from the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

The war games are understood to include a strong air element, with the Russian and Chinese air forces represented by 24 helicopters, eight fighter jets and six Ilyushin Il-76 military cargo planes from each nation. The selection of aircraft and presence of paratroopers appear to indicate that the maneuvers involve training of a possible joint rapid deployment, a sign of collective security arrangements.

SCO officials repeatedly have claimed that the joint drill was not a sign of the grouping's evolution into an anti-western military alliance. On 10 August, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Liu Guchang announced in Moscow that the SCO joint military exercise would not target any other country or organization. The SCO would not become a military bloc, Liu said, adding that the group's non-confrontational agenda was not aimed against any third country or organization.

Ahead of the drill, on 8-9 August, top SCO military officials held strategic consultations in Urumqi, the capital of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. At the meeting, General Yuri Baluyevsky, head of the Russian Army's General Staff, denied any plans of forming a military bloc, but said SCO economic cooperation would be impossible without stronger security in the region. He also said the SCO would hold similar war games, possibly as soon as next year.

However, Baluyevsky told the meeting the SCO should work out a clear understanding of how the military element of the organization would develop. In April, Russia drafted and passed to other SCO nations a blueprint for military cooperation, he said, adding that the member states were yet to come up with any response. Baluyevsky's statement appeared to indicate Moscow's eagerness to see more military elements in SCO operations.

Formally launched in Shanghai in 2001, the SCO initially prioritized economic, trade and cultural cooperation among member countries, but in recent years the grouping has been increasingly prioritizing military ties. In August 2005, Russia and China held eight-day maneuvers code-named "Peace Mission 2005," which involved some 10,000 troops in east China's Shandong Peninsula.

But while the previous drill was not high-profile politically, simultaneously with "Peace Mission 2007" the SCO is due to hold its annual summit on 16 August in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek. And this year the maneuvers are being observed by heads of states of the six SCO nations on 17 August.

The venue of the SCO summit is also significant in terms of the grouping's policies. At the summit in the Kazakh capital of Astana in July 2005, SCO leaders urged US-led coalition forces to declare a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan as well as from Manas base in Kyrgyzstan. The grouping demanded a limit on outside interference in nations' internal affairs and approved the observers status of Iran, Pakistan and India in the SCO.

Kyrgyz authorities have been keen to demonstrate their pro-SCO stance by demanding increased rent payments for the US air base at Manas, which is used for supporting missions in Afghanistan. Bishkek has raised the issue with Moscow, which uses a Kyrgyz air base at Kant.

Ahead of the last summit, Kyrgyz media was ripe with speculation that Washington might have tried to undermine relations among SCO members ahead of the summit.

The US military presence at Manas is understood to remain a matter of concern for the SCO, although the issue is not on the official agenda of the Bishkek summit.

The leaders of Iran, Turkmenistan and Mongolia are expected to attend the summit. Although officials insist that the SCO expansion by inclusion of Iran is not on the organization's agenda, Iranian participation remains an affront to the West.

Apart from advocating the grouping's increased military role, Russia has also been keen to develop a connection between its own disagreements with the West and the SCO agenda. When SCO defense ministers met in Bishkek in June to discuss the drill, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov lost little time in lashing out at the US missile defense plans for Eastern Europe. In an apparent reference to the US policies, he reportedly claimed that some nations selfishly misused the "war on terror" and nuclear non-proliferation, thus undermining the legitimate interests of other countries.

The Kremlin is likely seeking stronger military ties within the SCO as a counterbalance to perceived Western pressures on missile defense and other security issues. However, it remains far from certain whether the SCO nations, above all China, would be willing to support the Russian strategy.
ISN Security Watch - Shanghai cooperation, military overtones

So, things re hotting up!

Never underestimate the adversary!