S-2

Thanks for the Haass article. This is a valuable overview of recent middle eastern history and is a reasonable representation of the current and future issues. The twelve conditions which Haass sees emerging are a solid reminder of the myriad ingredients that create this middle eastern witches brew.

I suspect, though could be wrong, that this report may represent the considered view of the CFR, not just Haass. As such, it's intensely pessimistic in its conclusions.

Mistakes to Avoid

1.) Don't rely upon military force. There are factors such as militias common to this region that defy normal force-driven solutions.

2.) Don't count upon "democratic transformation" as a guiding principle to a more benign and peaceful middle-east.

Opportunities to Seize

1.) Diplomacy directed at engaging Syria, Iran, and re-opening a Palestinian/Israeli peace dialogue.

2.) Pursue and achieve energy independance.

Haass' thoughts about the diplomatic possibilities for a Palestinian/Israeli agreement are intriguing, but only in comparison to his weak case for diplomacy with Syria, and the virtually non-existant case for engaging the Iranians.

If military strikes against Iran are dangerous and deterrance uncertain, diplomacy isn't the BEST option available to Washington. If conditions preclude the former two options, diplomacy without leverage offers no hope of a satisfactory conclusion to questions about Iran's nuclear ambitions. From Iran's point of view, there'd be no basis for discussions.

Thanks again for a very worthy read.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski