World Affairs Board - View Single Post - Outline Of What will if Israel attacks Iran?

JAD_333 · 07-28-2007, 17:27 PM

An attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear reactor is unlikely.

More likely is that the UN and major power efforts will succeed in convincing Iran to abandon its enrichment activities.

In any case, the Iranian leadership including the Ayatolla knows that time is running out; it cannot afford sanctions that will cause its economy to regress nor the loss of public support that will result.

It also cannot afford to provide any pretext for an attack; helping insurgents in Iraq is one such pretext that needs closing. The new talks between Iran and the US, although commenced in a hostile atmosphere, may indicate that Iran is ready to play the part of an honest broker with the Shiites in Iraq to bring sectarian hostilites there to a close.

Still, Iran needs a facing saving way out of its nuclear predicament without.
Appearing to surrender would damage its influence. It could do this with a symbolic call on all ME countries to foreswear development of nuclear weapons, although most if not all already have by signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Milk toast.

A better course would be to suspend enrichment activites calling it a gesture to promote peace in the region. Who would believe that? Never mind, every leader will pretend to... Of course, Iran's decision would have to follow concessions by the US related to its ME policy. This is one reason why winning in Iraq, or appearing to be winning, is important for the US. The size of the concessions we give will depend on how strong we appear at the time of a deal.

07-28-2007, 17:27 PM	#15 (permalink)
JAD_333 *Defense Professional* Join Date: 04-15-07 Location: Virginia Posts: 3,117 Country:	An attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear reactor is unlikely. More likely is that the UN and major power efforts will succeed in convincing Iran to abandon its enrichment activities. In any case, the Iranian leadership including the Ayatolla knows that time is running out; it cannot afford sanctions that will cause its economy to regress nor the loss of public support that will result. It also cannot afford to provide any pretext for an attack; helping insurgents in Iraq is one such pretext that needs closing. The new talks between Iran and the US, although commenced in a hostile atmosphere, may indicate that Iran is ready to play the part of an honest broker with the Shiites in Iraq to bring sectarian hostilites there to a close. Still, Iran needs a facing saving way out of its nuclear predicament without. Appearing to surrender would damage its influence. It could do this with a symbolic call on all ME countries to foreswear development of nuclear weapons, although most if not all already have by signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Milk toast. A better course would be to suspend enrichment activites calling it a gesture to promote peace in the region. Who would believe that? Never mind, every leader will pretend to... Of course, Iran's decision would have to follow concessions by the US related to its ME policy. This is one reason why winning in Iraq, or appearing to be winning, is important for the US. The size of the concessions we give will depend on how strong we appear at the time of a deal. __________________ To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education. (Plato) Last edited by JAD_333 : 07-28-2007 at 17:32 PM.