Wraith601

Before we start keep in mind that I want this to be a thread with some serious discussion, it is not meant to be another banal "vs." thread. If this goes well we may be able to establish a series of intelligent "what if" threads.

Normally we get lots of "China vs US" and "PRc vs Taiwan" threads but my question is what about the PRC and Central Asia?

Let's say hypothetically the PRC decides to move into Central Asia, in particular Kazakhstan. Now the reason given would be to achieve restore stability to the region (this could be preceded by PRC sponsored unrest of revolt), in fact it is an attempt to secure favorable access to Kazakhstan's oil and gas reserves and to put pressure on the other Central Asian states to give the PRC more favorable terms.

Here's some things I'm curious about:

1. Can the PRC even actually carry out such an operation? The closest forces I've found are those in the Lanzhou Military District just a single armoured division, two motorised infantry divisions, one artillery division, one armoured, two motorised infantry, one artillery, one anti-aircraft brigades, and an anti-tank regiment. However, I am unsure of their combat capabilities. Does the PRC 15th Airborne Corps have the capability to take Kazakhstan? Can the PRC redeploy the 38th or 39th Group Army to the region without raising undue alarm? Are these forces even enough?

2. What is the likely response of the US and/or Russia? Do they commit military forces?

3. If the US and/or Russia does commit forces, what do they send and what is their plan?

4. Do the Kazakhs even resist or do they accept a PRC presence?

As always any comments and discussion is most welcome.

__________________
"We always have been, we are, and I hope that we always shall be, detested in France."
-Sir Arthur Wellesley