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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
Hi Zraver,
We should not be so concerned at them being peaceful as we should be concerned with them being manageable.
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Take awa thier ability to threaten and put them under punishing sanctions until they clean up thier act. You don't manage nuclear weapons states.
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The United States has a proven track record of hemming in people armed with nuclear weapons, people whose rhetoric and actions were several orders of magnitude greater than that being demonstrated by Iran.
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The United States has a track record of failing to at agressively enough to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. If we would act soon enough, we would not have to lock ourselvess intoan endless and ultimately insustainable seige of forgien countries far form our border.
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War in and of itself will not turn Iran into a failed state I would agree.
However, Iran has some deep, systemic problems that war could very likely exasperate to the point of non recovery.
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In the final estiamte, it is better to have Iran dissove than to have the Middle East consumed by nucelar warfare. If we don't act evnetually Israel will and then the gloves are off. Israel with far les sin terms of capability may well go nuclear first under the principle that its better to ask forgiveness than permission.
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Look at the forest, not the trees.
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I would say the same to you. This is not an issue that jsut cropped up with us hawkish types yelling Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war. This issue has been building for years, and each day Iran not only gets closer to real capability but has one more day to harden thier assets agaisnt attack making any eventual miltiary action less sure of sucess with every passing day.
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Either way, it was a change from within facillitated by much Clinton backed European diplomacy.
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I dissage, I and many other observers fele the Norks would ahve fallen apart with out fuel and food given by the west that kept the army fit and in control. They didn't have nukes then, they do now, way to go Bubba.
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Might be a lesson therein.
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Act now while we still can might be the best one.
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Giving democracy a chance has never been a supreme interest of the United States in Iran or anywhere else.
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Hrmmm, so whats Germany and Japan? I would say the US has as often been a proponent of Democrac as it has been an instrument of tyranny. Which is sad enough for America, bit now time is better than now than to turn over a new leaf and really start advocating rule by the people for the people, and of the people.
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The Bush Administration's foreign policy is no exception.[
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Bush had some great ideas, the problem is he couldn't find his a s s with both hands and a road map.
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If you recall, the United States supported tyranny in Iran and aided in the suppression of democracy there in the past which is part of the reason we have to deal with these hostile elements in the Iranian polity in the first place.
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Arguing original sin is pointless. No one in the American or Iranian goverments is still around. In 1979 the US was not assisitng the Shah in maintaining power, but iran sur ehad no problem attacking the US and blaiming an event decade sin the past.
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The Iranians may have a taste for many of the trappings of Western culture, but that does not mean they will support the policies of or puppet governments supported by Western nations, especially Western nations which have screwed them in the past.
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I never called for a puppet goverment, I think Iran's citizens are perfectly capable of creating a govemrent that meets their needs and conforms to international norms without international supervsion just as soon as the clerics lose thier veto of secular power.
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The Pasadran know what generations of Iranian elites/patricians/powerbrokers/whatever have known: Washington is fickle, far away and many of its policies are ephermal. They also know that their enemies and strategic concerns are right next door, concrete and not going anywhere.
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Washington has bene opposing Iran, supporting the GCC for decades now. Washingotn might not be able to remember where yesterday's crisis was or why it was, but it never ever forgets where oil comes from.
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The Pasadran also know what Washington does not: how far along they are in their program and what they are going to do next.
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Only to a point, despite Iraq I trust the CIA to be able to monitor industrial scale nuclear activity.
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Only if the caloric intake will support revolutionary activity.
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Starving French peasants did pretty good, starvation will not stop a revolt although it might spark one. When starvation is used as a weapon the critical ingrediant is a different ethinic/cultural group willing to enforce the starvation on the targeted group.
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..which brings us back to the threat environment: how can you expect any Iranian regime of any persuasion to not develop a deterrent capability when their neighbors pose a threat to them?
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Thier neighbors do not pose a credible threat lacking all but the most rudimentary offensive capabilties.
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My military education has been sadly neglected but it would appear a line in the sand is just like any other fortification: only as good as the people who man it.
If our line in the sand is fortified by people the enemy perceives as foolish and unwise, then it does not have much value as a fortification for our friends and foes both respect wisdom more than folly.
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A Line in the sand bacled by resolute action is very effective. If some one like Bush 41 was in office Iran would be singing a very different tune. If Bush 43 hadn't bungled Iraq, Iran would likely be singing a different tune.
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The Iranians and everybody else are evaluating and probing based on analysis of hard actions and policy choices extant in relation to their own interests and that is how they determine credibility.
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I think alot of what they are doing is bluffing. If they can get from A to G then have to make concessions taking them back to E they still gain.
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As to "who blinks loses", if have heard it said that "oft times, the eyes only see correctly when they are closed".
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and just as often- Open your damn eyes
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Another simple statement of fact is that if you paint yourself far enough into a corner that you let the other guy define the threat and your own vulnerability, that is considered to be both a tactical and strategic failure.
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Which is what I percive Iran doing as we debate, the problem is of course is to get Iran out of that corner we will track pain across the kitchen floor.
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I have heard it said that "the superior strategist does not put himself in a position where his superior skill is required" as well as "the acme of military skill is to achieve your aims without fighting". Might not be conventional wisdom but it has lead to many more than one victory.
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We are dealing with elected polticians and clerics, neither class is well know for adequate risk assesment, or genuine concern for those they govern/rule.
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That is a pretty one dimensional view but if we take it at face value for the moment, the glaring corollary is that life always extracts the greatest cost from the fool, not the sage.
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Its not one dimensional at all. Iran will either be moved by gold (the loss of it, the gain of it, or the promise of it) or blood (the loss of threatened loss of it). All magor international crisises are solved with either blood, gold, or both.
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It would appear that both of these slogans are discredited...one more than the other, at any rate.
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and I know which one
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Besides, those slogans are both generally used to sway large masses of people for short term, domestic political gain, not forwarding long term national agendas.
Regards,
William
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I dunno, do you think Churchill was wrong for preaching the coming of the Iron Curtain? Was he just out to sway the masses? I think your tryign to trvilaize the military option by understatign the level of threat Iran poses.
my .02