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One might make the argument that with a credible nuclear deterrent in hand, Iran would not have to resort to many of these offsets.
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Giving guys witha history of agressive action better weapons has never made them peaceful.
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Converting Iran into a failed state with its attendant effects on energy security, increasing terrorist activity, allowing its WMD materials and know how slip away, increasing regional instability, etc., etc. is the abandonment of our allies as well but comes at a higher price than attempting to roll back or contain a nuclear armed Iran.
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I don't agree that war woud turn Iran intoa failed state. The country has a great deal of homogenity and a fucntioning democracy under neath the clerics. If anything the fall of the IIRGC and the clerics would allow Iran to flourish. That would help our allies our interests and the Iranian people.
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The Iranians are anything but mad. They have, since their Revolution, demonstrated a fair degree of strategic acumen and sophistication.
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Not really, they been clumsy and brazen, but no ones been willing to spank them. Acumen would have kept them from being isolated. They burned Russia and China and got slapped with an arms embargo.
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That is not exactly the whole story.
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It's clsoe enough Quadaffi needed trade to stay in power in an Arab world of rising islamist influence.
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And neither will military action without long term occupation and management.
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I dissagree. The Clerics power rests on the IIRGC and the the nuclear dream. Defeatign them undercuts the central supports giving the dmeocracy a chance.
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Sanctions might actually be helping the Iranians more than hurting them for they reinforce the regime's domestic position to an extent.
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Only in the short term. They might be mad at us now, but eventually the Iranian people (who are overwhelingly pro western) will be mad at thier govement for not doign something about it. Its human nature.
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Thank you. You have made my argument for me.
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The US isn't the USSR and the GCC isn't Cuba so the threat envriment is not going to suddenly melt away. And the only way the clerics are going anyhwere is if the Pasadran is taken out. In a way the Pasadran resembles the Templars. They are as much industrialsit now as warriors. Take out their warfighting abilties and hit thier economic interests and they might dump the clerics to save their wallets and privlages.
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Regime change usually tends to follow prosperity. Without economic liberalization and prosperity, expectations of any degree of political liberalization are kind of fool hardy.
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Uhmmm.....
Which on eof these nations was prosperous when regime change occured
Germany, Japan, Argentina, South Africa, Iraq, Serbia, China, PRC (Gang of five era), Greece (colonels era) Romania, East Germany, USSR, Peru etc. Regime change follows defeat and collapse not prosperity.
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Tyranny feeds on empty bellies.
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empty bellies eat tyrants
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Sure you can endorse OIF style regime change if you want but if it does not deliver in Iraq, can we expect it to deliver in Iran?
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Iran can have what ever govemrent it wants so logn as it cannot threaten its neighbors.
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As to changing the threat environment, I have already advocated that in the case of Iran but this is not possible because it is Barneyesque appeasment some strange reason
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We've drawn a line in the sand, if we don't back it up they will simply step across it jsut like last time. Until their actiosn have real consequences any unilaterla moves on our part look like weakness. Any disengagement has to be intiated by Iran. Who ever blinks loses, Kennedy understood this simple fact and Cuba stayed nuclear free.
Umm...ah...you opened your last rebuttal with conventional wisdom, did you not?
Umm...ah...you opened your last rebuttal with conventional wisdom, did you not?
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Umm...ah...you opened your last rebuttal with conventional wisdom, did you not?
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No, not sure if you meant the passage directly above (history isn't indoctrination) or the reply itself (without a doubr capabiltiy equals threat) but neithe rone of conventional wisdowm. 2+2=4 and if you point a loaded gun at me it is a threat. simple statements of fact.
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Be that as it may, tune, payment, payment method, etc. are all negotiable.
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Life only accpets blood and gold. The longer we wait the more of one or both of them it will cost.
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Putting the piper aside, history also tells us that if you allow yourself to be decoyed by the Sirens, your ship will be dashed upon the rocks. The Siren song of a ruler's advisers enticing him into ill advised military adventurism has dashed more than one ship of state upon the rocks over the last 5,000 years.
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Which is the sirens song? "Peace in our time" or "stike now before its too late"
my .02