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This is my first post, so I apologise if these points have been covered earlier.
What exactly would constitute `victory' for the US?
Will it be the end of all insurgent attacks ? I don't see that happening because the insurgency is at what I would call a state of equilibrum - where both sides can sustain the current rate of casualties. I suspect that the insurgents can do so for a longer period, even with a 10:1 loss ratio.
Is the holding of a free election (post ending the insurgency) a yardstick for success ?
Even assuming that attacks on US forces end (which could happen if Iran backs off) and a fresh election held. What happens if a Shia majority govt adopts a pro Iran posture and demands that the US leave immediately?
The situation is further complicated by the internal Sunni-Shia-Kurdish rivalry.
Hence, countries like Saudi or Jordan, which may publicly want the US to leave, will hope they stay on in Iraq - to prevent Shia dominance, draw in Islamists from their own countries to Iraq while weakening America's ability
to interfere further in Arab affairs (i.e - bring in democracy).
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