I took the liberty by translating some passages from local newspapers (sorry for poor translation , it磗 quite late
):
Editorial , Eesti Ekspress , 17.05.07.
Pusher vs. Puller
On this Friday in Samara EU-Russias meeting will start . EU-s leaders have plenty of themes to discuss with Russia. But on the other hand it is clash of opposites.
EU was created on continent weary of war to prevent new conflicts. Today EU is one of the synonyms (sp.?)of welfare . It is a guarantee of free and prosperous life for it磗 citizens .EU is like a gravity center , to which newcomers want to attach . And thousands of immigrants risk with their lives to get there .
On closer inspection numerous ills appear on shiny surface , but they do not affect the big picture much.
On the other hand almost everybody close to Russia tries to escape from it. At first former 创allies创 or WP. Then Baltic states and former republics eroded away. As geographicly there is nowhere to go , they have decided to distance from their former master politically. And success and welfare is closest to them , who were most commited to escaping Russias sphere of influence .
Of course this has been noticed by russians too . On this week 创Noviye Izvestia创 compared Russia to besieged island . Politologist Dmitri Oreshkin acknowledges that Russia lacks economical power to make it center of attraction .创Citizens of former Sov.republics want to have the living standard of Germany , and not living standard of Smolensk .创 ---- _----
One of the main reasons on collapse of Sov.Union was the problem of country being able to send spaceships to orbit the Earth , but not to provide it磗 people with freezers, vacuum cleaners , oranges and underwear.
Of course Russia desires to be economics-superpower , whose protection is desirable . Of course people in Russia wish to live freely and in prosperity as in EU or USA , that passpor of Russia would open them just as much boreders withoutvisas as for citizens of Europe . But sad story is that Pres.Putin has not much to show to his people .
It is logical that Moscow cannot allow to let the 1945 slip out focus . No wonder , that 1 million estonians are being presented to 150 million russians as dangerous enemies . It is much easier than to explain to your people (with elections coming) why after 60 years from Victory people in Smolensk still live in poverty compared to Berlin .
Following are some snippets from an interview with Ilmari Susiluoto . He is an Russia-expert in University of Helsinki磗 Aleksanteri Institute , adivisor to Finnish presidents Koivisto and Ahtisaari , PhD in State Justice (Govermental Justice? )
What Russia wants from Estonia ?
Russia today is afraid of new Europe , especially Poland but Bulgaria , Czech , Balkan and Baltic states as well. Moscow磗 fear is that these countries will tilt EU against Russia. EU-s aim is to attract Russia into Europe. Russia磗 aim is opposite. Moscow tries to maneuver into position , where she can open or close the gas valves according to her needs.
Russia磗 goal is to rise into
energitsheskaja superderzhava - superpower of energy. Russia defines herself today with words
suverennaja demokratia- sovreign democracy. They understood it so that they are and must be independent from other world.
What does this democracy mean ?
laughing Democracy was passing phenomenon . Let me give you an example .3 years ago I talked with superior of MVD units of Tver oblast . We talked about Karelian minority , many of who磎 live in Tver , and I asked him , how do the russian authorities view them. And this fellow said to me : the most important thing is that they would be afraid of us! Moscow wants to be afraid . This is the crux . And this not only applies to foreign countries but to it磗 own citizens.
How is Moscow making politics ?
In my opinion Moscow does not see EU as Union , but as only 3 countries : Germany , France and UK . Moscow will take one country at time and deals with it personally . This is an characteristic line that can be followed through Russias history.
In 1939-40 Sov.Unionm dealt one-by-one with germans, french and english. By separating them Stalin reached his goals .
And now is the Baltic Sea pipeline the issue ?
Yes, this is big political question. Russia plans to guard this 24h. . If this pipeline goes through Finnish, Swedish or Est. sea borders , then Russia sees legitimate right to send in Baltic Fleet in case of any mishap.
-------
What is the current state of Russias economy ?
(
laughing)One thing is to watch Russias oil companies stock. I wouldn磘 count on it. '
Russia lacks sustainable infrastructure . Gas and oil-industries would need huge investments for modernization. Some companies ahve done it , others not . And I磎 talking about the core of Rus.economy , the one that brings in the money.
What about infrastructure ?
Sov. citys were built mostly on 60-s to 980-s . We know what was the building quality of Brezhnev-era. That applies to pipes, drainage , roads , everything . Moscow still can maintain it , Peterburg too , some other place maybe too. But in whole Russia it is impossible. The sums needed to overhaul it are mind-blowing .Russia has no such money.
But what about the gas and oil money ?
Russias leadership has decided to give this money to Ministries of Internal Affairs and Defence. Social department has got nothing . Presidential administration has paid minor sums to teachers and nurses . This is political manipulation , to show the people how good the president is.
What would happen if the price of oil or gas should fall on world markets ?
This would be total catastropy to Russia .Then it is the EU who will have to help out to keep the society together.
end of snippets . Hope it was worth it , I spent lot of time typing
. Sorry about typos , perhaps some misinterpretations or something like this . It is 01.07 AM and I磎 off to sleep.
Ray - I do not know is it any help , but at least some other view on topic. Seems that russia has again chosen the same road as old Sov.Union . Like in old Sov.era joke - What god applies to Sov.Union best ? Cupid - naked , but armed to the teeth .