S-2

There remain very powerful entities in Iran who've a vested interest in maintaining a confrontative position with the west- particularly the U.S. None of us want to see airstrikes or war with Iran.

"But opposition spokesmen say their broader objective is to bring down the fundamentalist regime by democratic means, transform Iran into a "normal country", and obviate the need for any military or other US and western intervention."

That would be nice were the cause of a possible western military operation Iran's existing government. It would be nice regardless. However, any military operation by the west, while perhaps targeted broadly, will be a direct response to Iran's nuclear program.

The time-lines are different and compelling. The world may not be able to await the emergance of a democratic Iran which is prepared to cease uranium enrichment. Therein has always lay the problem about the "long" strategy. It's a nascent, dormant movement that offers a minimal liklihood while demanding utter forebearance by the west until it's problematic success is achieved, if achieved at all.

Perhaps, as Druze suggests, sanctions are beginning to have a telling, corrosive, and coercive effect upon Iran's economy. Maybe constricted FDI will dry up available capital. Russia, India, the PRC, and Japan have roles to play here.

If it changes Iran's attitude about nuclear weapons, then it's succeeded amazingly. In the meantime, I shall not hold my breath awaiting the arrival of democracy to Iran nor a fundamental shift in it's view of the United States. It appears that we'll remain enemies for some time to come, IMHO.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski