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Originally Posted by Herodotus
There are clear benchmarks to see if the surge is working; fewer civilian casualties, fewer troop casualties. Both have gone up or stayed the same since the surge has started. More troops=more targets, and insurgents still have space to operate in during this surge. The point of counter-insurgency is to deny insurgents space, and to do that we need even more troops. if we think 30,000 is enough send 60,000 to make sure, etc.
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Herodotus,
You are dead on with the numbers game, unfortunately, we have to go to war with the Army we have, and while SecDef Gates pushed through the long needed increase in force structure, in the meantime we don't have that option.
In terms of indicators, your troop casualties will lag behind your civilian casualties. As we move out to the combat outposts (COPs) in Baghdad, we will be engaged in fights against those who currently own the turf. Thus, one should expect troop casualties to increase, which I think you wrote. Civilian casualties should decrease once the COPs are established, but troop casualties may still be elevated for a while as we fully establish the trust of those in the oil spots we are creating.
One question that the stats below don't tell are what the civilian casualties are from outside of Baghdad - how many are due to the splinter of groups formally aligned with AQI? While more deaths is never good, deaths stemming from AQI on local Iraqi violence a far different thing than sectarian EJKs (extra-judicial killings), with the EJKs continuing the cycle of violence and the AQI on local Iraqi resulting in groups seeing their self-interests not aligned with AQI, and potentially pushing them over into our camp.
As a sidebar, good metrics for COIN are not set in stone, and the following thread from SWJ talks of an interesting indicator for Anbar - how many times Marines from a platoon eat dinner with an Iraqi family.
Great idea on a Measure of Effectiveness - Small Wars Council
Quote:
Boston Globe
April 14, 2007
Baghdad Civilian Deaths Drop Since Crackdown
By Associated Press
BAGHDAD -- Iraqi civilian deaths have fallen in Baghdad in the two months since the Feb. 14 start of the US-led offensive, according to an Associated Press tally. Outside the capital, however, civilian deaths are up as Sunni and Shi'ite extremists shift their operations to avoid the crackdown.
The security mission has taken a heavy toll on US forces: Deaths among American soldiers climbed 21 percent in Baghdad compared with the previous two months.
Since the crackdown began, US military officials have spoken of encouraging signs that security is improving in the capital but have cautioned against drawing any firm conclusions until at least the summer.
Figures compiled by the AP from Iraqi police reports show that 1,586 civilians were killed in Baghdad between the start of the offensive and Thursday. That represents a sharp drop from the 2,871 civilians who died violently in the capital during the two months that preceded the security crackdown.
Outside the capital, 1,504 civilians were killed between Feb. 14 and Thursday, compared with 1,009 deaths during the two previous months, the AP figures show.
"We know this increased security presence and cooperation from the people is having an impact in Baghdad," Major General William C. Caldwell, a US military spokesman, said this week. "It is a good beginning, but it is not nearly enough. The violence across the rest of Iraq remains at unacceptable levels."
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