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At this point the mod hasnt been very clear with what will happen to the 2 remaining aircraft carriers.
Ark royal has as you correctly pointed out just returned to the fleet after a refit that according to sources will see her into 2015.
Illustrious is at the moment at work and hasnt had this refit.
The new carriers wont likely be in service until 2013 and 2015 if we are lucky. If the mod were to take in Illustrious for a refit in 2010 we could say that we would be lucky enough to have a 3 carrier fleet.
I guess the issue is will the defence budget allow for this.
Considering that we are very likely to have a conservative government in 2009 we might get lucky with armed forces spending.
I think the main issues will come down to can britain maintain a teir 2 navy with the rate of decomissioning we have seen in the past 4 years.
Clearly the spanish and italian navies are quickly catching up with the french and british and they have a much more modern fleet, including a small carrier platform. if they decide to increase spending and work up to a cvf size carrier that france and britain will have to give up their notions of being the leading naval powers of europe.
with the increases in carrier capable nations its an interesting time for those of us that forget about battleships and look at carriers
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