Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnut
Do your models work for all regions of the earth? Do your models work for any historical period? If not, then it's only a local model, not fit for predicting global weather pattern.
Same with predicting climate with human interaction. What we have now is less than incomplete. We shouldn't act with impulse and alarmism.
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As I said, it was a local model that I was working on. As a lowly undergrad/hons student I didn't have access to the big models ($$$) nor the computer power ($$$) to run them. I used various periods for the past ~150 years (length of instrumental data) and yes it did work. To have gone back further than this required branches of science outside of what I was studying, and wherein I believe the controversy over the 'hockey stick' graph is centred. The fact remains that accurate models are being made.
Whilst we shouldn't act with impulse and alarmism it would certainly be foolish to ignore what could be a major human problem. In my opinion there is nothing wrong with people taking a good look at their lives and realising the amount of waste that they are responsible for. Even if humans are not responsible for climate change, we are certainly responsible for inefficient use of resources.
As to the hockey stick graph, whilst I can find debunkers I can also find confirmation. Note that not all replicants use tree rings. Coral, stalagtites and boreholes have also been used, with the same trend of the hockey stick graph being replicated.
US National Academy. Review of methodology.
http://www.nature.com/news/2006/0606.../4411032a.html
Replication.
Ammann and Wahl. (just an abstract).
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/ammann.shtml
Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor Network, Target Season and Target Domain, Journal of Climate, in press, 2004.
This one has a nice comparison between Jones & Mann (2004), Moberg et al. (2005) and Osborn and Briffa (2006).
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globa...paleolast.html
I don't have access to anything published since 2006 since. Do you guys have anything since then?