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Originally Posted by chankya
Would that mean that the US would not strike at mainland china?
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All of China is a valid target but most likely restricted to those space directly threatening Taiwan.
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Originally Posted by chankya
The Taiwan straits is about 180Km wide. Does that really need a heavy troop lift capability? If (and I emphasise the "If" to stave off a flame war  ) the chinese could paradrop/airlift sufficient troops to hold a single port open, couldn't they just press in merchant vessels for transporting troops? |
I can come up with a whole lot of scenarios where the PLA can take a port or an airfield but not one in which I can see that they can hold one. Merchant ships need a dock but it's damned easy for the Taiwanese to sink a freighter at the mouth of the harbour.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chankya
Further, I would suggest that the Chinese navy having evolved primarily into a sea-denial role would while running to significant losses still be able to able to keep the straits open. While that sounds like a lopsided argument my reasoning is this : The US is not capable of sustaining a high casualty war. (This is not usually a problem since they can bomb a country into the stoneage before the first US soldier actualy sets foot). An aircraft carrier has a compliment of roughly 3000 sailors. Woudl you really stick it in a rather small area with a lot of hostile submarines? Hence my "sea denial in the taiwan straits = limited sea control" proposition.
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Goes both ways. For every ship the PLAN lost is one less ship that cannot support the invasion. Sink even one merchant ship and you've just lost an entire battalion. Never mind the battalions sitting waiting at the mainland to be pick up by that merchant ship.
And just how many ships/subs do you think the PLAN will lose going after one carrier?
Quote:
Originally Posted by chankya
I'm not even sure where my question is in all this. It's just that I'm not sure it would be the cakewalk most of you describe it to be.
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Currently, it's a cakewalk for the Taiwanese.