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Jimmy,
I'm a moderator at the China-Defence.com forum, an English based academic PLA watcher forum, and we have been over the Taiwan scenario to death. The core problem with all this is that we have a hell of a time trying to fit Chinese doctrines into the Taiwan scenario.
From what we know of Chinese doctrine, the core of their military thinking (described in the Chinese People's Liberation Army Handbook) has always been the final battle of annihilation. The Diem Bien Phus. Only problem is that we can't figure out how they're going to get one.
There are 3 corps on Taiwan. The PLA at best can kill one corps. And here we get the "And a Miracle Happens here" that Taiwan surrenders.
We thought we had a good grasp on it a couple years ago when the Chinese went extremely heavy in the War Zone Campaign (their limited version of FM 3.0) but since the Iraq War, we have seen them backing away from WZC.
Looking at at their exercises, it seems really not geared for Taiwan. They have had a division against an entrenched battalion, hardly the kind of numeric contests that would be envisioned in Taiwan.
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Chimo
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