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Old 02-22-2007, 04:26 AM   #5 (permalink)
Bigfella
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
Orange/Rose/Cedar revolution for Iran?

I think a softer approach may be more successful... threats are likely to alienate the Iranian people. The Ayatollahs may not be able to overthrown overnight, but an effective change has to be triggered from within.
Common ground here ID. I think the article provides a very intelligent set of options for future US Administrations. I use the plural deliberately, because it might take more than one. Unfortunately Zraver may have a point:

"The proposal only has one major flaw. Unfortunately this flaw is so severe that it dooms the idea from its very inception. Namely you cannot expect the US Federal Goverment to excise common sense in any case, let alone an issue as important as Iran." - zraver

America has occasionally shown the ability to use relative subtlety to affect regime change. The fate of Milosovic in Yugoslavia provided an excellent example.

When force was used it was not used in an attempt to remove him, but to protect others from him. As much if not more important were the sanctions. In the short term both helped Milosovic consolidate his power, but in the longer term they stood as examples of the damage & shame he had brought to the nation. In the end it was Yugoslavs themselves who removed him - a vastly better option than any invasion could bring.

Obviously Iran has significant differences, but some important similarities too. One of the most important is that wghile Iran is a dictatorship, it is far from totalitarian. People do get to express opinions in the press & at the ballot box, though the possibility of change is still limited. There is a thrving civil society in Iran which has little time for the mullahs. The trick is not to forget that these people are also proud Iranians. Remember that the last serious attack on Iran (by our good friend Saddam) cemented the power of the Ayatollahs.

The measures outlined in the article will help those elements of Iranian society keen for change without coming off as heavy-handed US interference. This may not be the fastest course to a democratic Iran, but in the long run change from within will be far more effective than change from without.
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