Quote:
Originally Posted by astralis
zraver,
the US is dependent on ME oil, but not THAT dependent. between the strategic reserve and other countries, even a total fall of middle east oil supplies wouldn't mean a collapse of the global economy- just a very frantic rush to get south american, mexican, and most of all, african oil supplies more developed.
and also, something that's often missed out- where does iran gets its revenue to fund its economy (let alone its war machine) if iran closes off all oil supplies? how long would the US tolerate this?
funny thing about the global economy is, despite the spiking oil prices of the last five years, the global economy has grown faster in the last five year period than in any other period. the global economy, while still needing oil, is no longer completely tied to it.
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I dissagree, most of the world depends on ME oil for continued growth. it is not the only oil, but it is the easiest and cheapest to get too. Suddenly removing this would collapse the glabal economy. Even if the oil never really ran out, the perception of it running out would drive prices well past affordable. How many homes will be sold, televsions bought and meals at a finer eatery eaten if gas skyrockets? Not many and the sudden drop off in consumer spending globally would be what started the collapse.
Iran knows this and has built it's military for just such a purpose. By holding a credible threat vs the worlds energy supllie sit can pursue it's nuclear dreams in peace. To take out the nuclear ambitions means gettign rid of Iran's ability to close the straits. And this has to be done before Iran can retaliate and flame a dozen tankers.