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If we assume the pot is heading towards bpoil over and the balloon will go up. Where will the US strike first? The obvious strategic target is iran's nuclear facilties. But are these sites critical? Will taking them out reduce tensions and make the world safer? personally I don't think so, and think the imediate goal will be oil protection.
Iran has a very large and multi-facited force geared towards imposing a global oil blocake by closing the straits of Hormuz. These missile sites, strike aircraft, and naval vessels have to rendered unusable almost at once or energy issues will take center stage. I am not talking about 4 dollars a gallon., I am talking no gallons to sell at all. While the US military won't run out of oil thanks to Mexico, Canada, and domestic sources. And Europe can squeak by on north Sea and Russian supplies the rest of the world including North Ame'srica and Europe civillian consumers will be out of luck.
The global economy is not robiust enough to survive a serious threat to oil supplies. One side affec tof the new JIT (Just In Time) deleivery based economy is that there are no reserves. With out oil to ship everything from cereals to tube socks you could see economies unravelling rapidly.
Iran is obviously betting that its forces can survive the atrition inflcited by the US and her allies. This bet has emboldened them to pursue nucelar weapons, and to take an even more agressive stance against the US.
People forget that Iran declared war on the US when the Shah fell from power. Even if we didin't take that threat seriously, Iran obviously did.
The first step is to wake up to the fact that it is not if a war, but when. Then we need to figure out how to hit iran's center of gravity. To me this center is clearly thier ability to inflict oil blocade. Can we remove this ability rapidly enough to stall a devestating economic down turn?
The US Navy can sink Iran's navy at will or so close to it that as long as we fire first, they shouldn't fire at all. The aircraft can also be contained by USN/USAF/UK/AU/GS aircraft. My big worry is the ballistic and cruise missile sites. The easiest solution would be a series of quick tactical nuclear strikes agaisnt hardeneded storage sites and a combination of tomahawk adn stealth attacks agaisnt coastal batteries and launch pads.
Nuclear demonstration would first off show resolve to defend the worlds energy supply. Secondly it would cower Iran and North Korea both. Both rouge states rely on the US acting out of forbearance. If the dynamic was suddenly and demosntrably changed to one wher enuclear blackmail meritted a nuclear strike these weapons would lsoe thier apeal.
Sure Russia wpouldn't be too happy for a variet of reasons. Seeing thier latest and greatest miltech defeat once again would hurt arms sales and an Iran unable to blackmail oil prices and unable to support the Insurgency in iraq might lead to lower oil prices and thus lower profits for Russia. But we know Russia would only be objectign for self serving reasons. Same for France with its ingrained anti-Ameican feelings. But I bet China would aquiese at least privately. They stand to suffer the most if Iran follows through on its attempts to blackmail the world.
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