S-2

Correct me if wrong, but I recall the POTUS explictly inviting discussions with both Iran and Syria about Iraqi security. Seems that Iran required a bit of linkage to the proliferation issue.

Galrahn has recently noted an unusual series of naval deployments directed towards the Persian Gulf and northwest asia. We will, it seems, have an abnormally large contingent of naval vessels surged into the region by late February/early March.

This by Galrahn from another board. It makes for interesting reading-

"I am rarely interested in conspiracy theories forwarded by the media, but there are a number of events taking place that sure do give credibility to the possibility of covert action about to happen.

Putting the facts on the table, what is about to happen?

1) In early summer of 2006, the US Navy put together the largest CSG since 2003 for a planned deployment in January 2007. At the time there was a war breaking out in the Middle East between Lebanon and Israel, and signs of ballistic missile launch in North Korea. This was before the nuclear detonation in North Korea. The mission would be for the Stennis CSG, with 1 CG, 1 DDG, and 1 SSN to be augmented with 2 AEGIS BMD DDGs in a Task Force designed to field the full capability of Naval power. The mission would be to North Korea for operations while the USS Kitty Hawk is put up for repairs.

2) A United Nations military force is established in Lebanon, mostly made up of Italian, Spanish, and French troops supported by Naval assets led by Germany and supported by several NATO countries. Naval assets in the region include some of the most advanced European warships, and are expected to be augmented by February 2007 with Spanish, Italian, and French aircraft carriers operating in the region and surrounding areas.

3) In late fall of 2006 the US and UK announced it would be sending minesweeepers to the Persian Gulf to replace the existing coastal minehunters based in Bahrain that are being sold to Egypt. 2 Royal Navy minesweepers arrived yesterday, while the first of two US minesweepers was carried across the Suez last week on Condock V.

4) In early 2007 Israel repeated warnings to Iran from 2006 that Israel will strike if Iran does not halt its nuclear program and abide by UN demands.

5) The US announces a series of interesting deployments. Starting with 21,500 US Army troops, starting with 8000 marines and 600 Patriot Missiles followed by some of the most advanced Army units in the world, troop levels in Iraq and the Gulf States is expected to increase dramatically.

In addition to this, the USAF deploys F-117s to South Korea, announces the first foreign deployment of F-22As to Japan in February of 2007, and the Washington Times reports around 70 F-16s deployed 'somewhere to Southeast Asia.' Additionally, electronic warfare units consisting of equipment like the EC-130 Compass Call, EA-6Bs, A-10s, and AC-130s. This comes as 12 F-16s arrive in Turkey for 'exercises,' which is interesting considering US F-16s haven't been in Turkey since before the Iraq war.

The Navy deployments however are very interesting. In the same sentence Bush announces that Patriot missiles will be deployed to the Persian Gulf, the President also announces the Stennis CSG will be heading to the Gulf. This is particularly interesting because it was expected the Stennis CSG would deploy to Asia as planned, and not arrive to the Middle East until March when it relieved the Eisenhower CSG. What makes it interesting isn't that a carrier is being sent to the Gulf, but the Stennis CSG AND Patriot Missiles specifically are being sent.

You see, when the commanders started talking about surging a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf, it really left only 2 CSGs to choose from, either the Reagan CSG or Enterprise CSG, or so I thought. The Reagan CSG is being surged as I thought, and will be deploying in a few weeks, but instead of going to the Gulf, it will cover for the Kitty Hawk and presumably use forward deployed escorts for BMD as it patrols Asia.

By deploying the Stennis CSG to the Gulf, and ALSO sending Patriot Missiles to Iraq, a missile system that has no obvious role in counter-insurgency, I think it is legitimate to raise the red flags. The Stennis CSG is built around Ballistic Missile Defense, it wouldn't be sent to the Gulf unless Patriots were sent to support AEGIS BMD, because neither DDG supposedly has SM-3s yet, so it would need Patriots to be the interceptor.

6) Saudi Arabia offers Sec of State Rice to send troops into Iraq if the Iraqi government is unable to execute the new US plan. This is really interesting, because ever since Saddam’s regime in Iraq fell, Saudi Arabia is now the counterbalance in the region to Iran. Have you been paying attention to the budget blowout Saudi Arabia has had since 2003 regarding weapons systems? Saudi Arabia doesn’t have US troops, or planes, protecting them anymore. If war breaks out, their armed forces are the first and only line of defense against Iranian attack.

7) Strategic Bombers are about to conduct their rotation, meaning it will just so happen that come mid February, at the same time the US will have about 150 additional fighter aircraft including some of the key stealth aircraft deployed to north Asia, and an additional 150 aircraft will be deployed to the Middle East, there will also be additional strategic bombers forward deployed to both Guam and Diego Garcia, and it just so happens to coincide during the precise time period between Red Flag 07-2.1 and Red Flag 07-2.2 at Nellis when many, many reserves are called up for annual exercises.

8) Finally, the US military in Iraq appears to be refocusing on going after Iranian agents in Iraq. The Pentagon is going out of its way to talk about IEDs and Iran in the same sentence, basically telling family of soldiers that Iran is responsible for a soldiers death.

So you tell me what is happening. The best USAF strike assets are in the Asian theater, and the best defense assets will be in the Middle East. The Stennis left today so they would arrive to the Middle East by the second week of February, instead of next week as originally planned months ago. There are a lot of coincidences, from the rotation of strategic bombers to the increase in troops in Iraq to the rotation of strategic bombers, not to mention the surge of the USS Reagan CSG and the upcoming scheduled deployment of the Bonhomme Richard ESG, there are a lot of things happening.

After all, the submarine force recently has a “stand down” effective until Jan. 19th, which coincidently, would be when the Stennis CSG passes by Pearl Harbor. Oh wait, that is just a coincidence, just like the minesweepers, Patriot Missile Batteries for counter insurgency, Stennis redeployment, announced USAF operations, and announced progression of troop deployments to the Gulf region.

Yes, I am embellishing, but not much. I’m actually just curious what you think is happening. I have a theory, one that hasn’t been forwarded anywhere yet, and I wonder if you have a theory to. I think there is about to be a war in February or March, but not in the obvious way you may assume."