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Ray · 01-17-2007, 01:31 AM

The addition of US troops, the US pressure building up on Malliki to get his house in order and with the live possibility that if the situation does not improve, the Democrats may force the US govt to withdraw or reduce troops, gives good reasons for Iran to worry.

It is not that they would not welcome the withdrawal of US troops, but for reasons other than those mentioned below.

The current situation in Iraq is ideal for Iran. The US is hard on the heels of the Sunnis (AQ and Anbar etc) and are marginalising them. At the same time, Malliki is not allowing the US troops to take on the Mahdi death squads (check news reports in the US politics sub forum and War in Iraq sub forum). Thus, ideal is the environment for Shia consolidation in Baghdad and Iraq since a systematic killing of the Sunnis is feasible and is going on unabated. The Sunnis are slowly being reduced to a nominal presence in Iraq!

This Shia game plan of Malliki and Shias is admirably suitable. Iran being the dominant Shia power in the ME and with grandiose plans to upstake Sunnis as the leading sect of Islam is already calling the shots in Iraq. This has credence since important personages have openly kowtowed to Iran as is observed in the comments of the Iraqi Minister chastising the US over the raid on the Iranian 'consulate' in North Iraq! It is unbelievable that any Iraqi minister could directly criticise the US over such a sensitive issue as Iran, the bete noir of the US!

Thus, for Iran, it would apparently be catastrophic if the US troops withdraw! Because if the US troops withdraw, the AQ (Sunnis) will return with vengeance. It will also open up manipulation by the Sunni nations of the ME, currently restrained by the US, to sneak in 'fighters' into Iraq to wreak vengeance as also to restore the Sunni supremacy that was there in Saddam's time!

Therefore, it is prudent for Iran to talk to Saudi Arabia and test the waters. This will also neutralise any Saudi influence on the US to harm the Shia consolidation in Iraq.

It maybe mentioned that while the Shias want the Shia crescent to span the ME, the Sunnis are immensely worried about their losing their hold on the Crescent since in this crescent lies the major oil fields of the world. The Sunnis are the dominant sect in the Islamic diaspora and they would not like to lose this position politically in the comity of Islamic nations.

01-17-2007, 01:31 AM	#4 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 26,836 Country:	The addition of US troops, the US pressure building up on Malliki to get his house in order and with the live possibility that if the situation does not improve, the Democrats may force the US govt to withdraw or reduce troops, gives good reasons for Iran to worry. It is not that they would not welcome the withdrawal of US troops, but for reasons other than those mentioned below. The current situation in Iraq is ideal for Iran. The US is hard on the heels of the Sunnis (AQ and Anbar etc) and are marginalising them. At the same time, Malliki is not allowing the US troops to take on the Mahdi death squads (check news reports in the US politics sub forum and War in Iraq sub forum). Thus, ideal is the environment for Shia consolidation in Baghdad and Iraq since a systematic killing of the Sunnis is feasible and is going on unabated. The Sunnis are slowly being reduced to a nominal presence in Iraq! This Shia game plan of Malliki and Shias is admirably suitable. Iran being the dominant Shia power in the ME and with grandiose plans to upstake Sunnis as the leading sect of Islam is already calling the shots in Iraq. This has credence since important personages have openly kowtowed to Iran as is observed in the comments of the Iraqi Minister chastising the US over the raid on the Iranian 'consulate' in North Iraq! It is unbelievable that any Iraqi minister could directly criticise the US over such a sensitive issue as Iran, the bete noir of the US! Thus, for Iran, it would apparently be catastrophic if the US troops withdraw! Because if the US troops withdraw, the AQ (Sunnis) will return with vengeance. It will also open up manipulation by the Sunni nations of the ME, currently restrained by the US, to sneak in 'fighters' into Iraq to wreak vengeance as also to restore the Sunni supremacy that was there in Saddam's time! Therefore, it is prudent for Iran to talk to Saudi Arabia and test the waters. This will also neutralise any Saudi influence on the US to harm the Shia consolidation in Iraq. It maybe mentioned that while the Shias want the Shia crescent to span the ME, the Sunnis are immensely worried about their losing their hold on the Crescent since in this crescent lies the major oil fields of the world. The Sunnis are the dominant sect in the Islamic diaspora and they would not like to lose this position politically in the comity of Islamic nations. __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA Last edited by Ray : 01-17-2007 at 01:44 AM.