Quote:
Originally Posted by zraver
Shek,
Do we really want a democratic middle east or do we want unifed or at least stable nation states. Much of the region is still too tribal for democracy and too reactionary for major reforms. Perhaps the goal in Iraq should be in creating peaceful states that respect the rule of a just set of laws that recognises both the modern values (UNUDHR) and a form of Sharia, that do not depend on a dictatorship or monarchy.
Quatar is leading the way with the intriduction of modern education and a constatutional monarchy. An Iraqi federation of 3 autonnomous states could further advance this goal. Iraq may be the current battle feild in the head lines but it is just one of several hotspots in the region.
I think the west has confused democracy with liberty and freedom, aka the buy in concept. Stabalizing the price of oil would help every state in the region in the endevour. With reliable budgets they could spend more on social programs aleviating poverty and dissillusionment. The ultimate goal is the subversion and evnetual replacement of the current rulers of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, and Hezzbollah/Hamas.
One big and persistent handicap in dealing with the region is a lack of a coherant policy. You mentioned tha tin dealing with an insurgency the civil and military aims must be united. I agee but we also need to see the whole of the ME as an insurgency not just Iraq. For nearly 100 year snow the west has doled out or with hold favors instead of building lasting foundations. If Iraqies deserve peace and prosperity, so do Palestinians, and Israelies, Lebanese and the Saudi/Gulf States have nots.
|
Zraver,
I'm still undecided as to whether democracy for Iraq is now unattainable, although I don't think that it was an impossible undertaking - we've certainly played our cards poorly with regards to "Phase IV" and have watched the initiative slip away, along with a lot of the middle class professionals that are required to see a functioning democracy. However, without going too far down the Democracy: Mission Impossible, path, I'd redirect discussion to this
thread, if possible, so that it could remain more COIN focused.
I fully agree with your thoughts on trying to liberalize within the confines of Sharia. Morocco can serve as a model with this regard.
Not so sure about your thoughts on oil - partly from my perspective as an economist and free market supporter - but more from the fact that it's not any lack of stable oil prices that prevents Arab states from directing the money in productive directions. This is a
post from Astralis that captures this point to a degree. Thus, I think it is more of a question of how do you motivate them to put their oil profits to better use, and I don't have an answer of how we can leverage that.
Finally, I think that we are in somewhat of a quandary WRT our ME policy. We cannot subscribe to the failed policy of a "stable" but autocratic ME, but we cannot try a comprehensive redo without risking bringing Islamists to power (e.g. Hamas in Palestine) or without appearing to be engaging in a West vs. Islam policy. So, I think the limited strategy that the Bush Administration engaged in was right in terms of being incremental, but we've certainly played our hand poorly in Iraq and that we underestimated Hamas in Palestine and therefore found ourselves having been beat at our own game, if you will.