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zraver · 01-15-2007, 04:22 AM

Thank you Brigadier Ray,

Mayalasia succeeded primarily beucase of the dual use of relocation and cutting of supply lines. Becuase the islands did not lend them selves to a Ho Chi Mihn Trail the amount of amteriual that could be smuggled in was small. The key in Veitnam wasn't relocation, but land reform. Most of the magor land owners in South Vietnam were absentee and British experts urged such reforms. One of the big draws of the VC and thier Northern amsters was land reform. If the RV had done this a signifigant base of support could have been cut off, and the VC defeated before the North was ready for full sclae operations in the south. The insurgewncy in Vietnam was beaten by miltiary force and all but ceased to exist as an efective miltiary force after Tet 68. However by then the NVA was in the south in force.

other conventional victories over guerilla forces include the defeat of the SS Werewolf campaign in post war Germany, the nazi defeat of the Chetniks and Tito's partisans in 43-44. And in the post war defeat of the Forest Brothers in the Baltic states. All used the massive application of force. while the world hasn't changed bleeding hearts have forced the democracies to labor under the mistaken concept that war has rules regarding its conduct.

One day the democracies will wake up and realize that in war people die and you can either do the killing up front and break the enemies will to resist, or you can do it in dribs and dabs and end up with even more deaths in the long run. The US create the insurgency by not understanding the politcal dynamic of the nation. It could have recovered from this early on, but instead of providing order, drinking water, jobs,and power it provided elections for its own domestic politcal agenda. This allowed the insurgency to snowball.

The US is now faced with two choices, continue to pander to the US doemstic market, or fight to win. The peace could be won in six months if the US and iraq's goverment could stomach the bloodletting it would require and if the US was willing to shoulder the burden of a massive increase in rebuilding to prevent a fresh wave of attacks when the survivors regrouped.

Kill Sadr and as many of his zealots as possible. No last minute reprive trap him and burn him out like a rat. This would cripple the extra-govemrental shia miltias who are acting as death squads and lend some faith to the Sunni's that laying down thier arms wont expose them to even more sectarian violence. Thier are persistent rumors of the US meeting with Sunni insurgent leaders: security in a Shia dominated iraq is surely high on thier list. With Sadr and by extnesion Iran silenced at least for a short time begin talks on an autonomous federation: Shiastan, Sunnistan, and Kurdistan. This will require massed relocation to seperate the warring parties.

The big blocks to this are of course Turkey and Iran. Europe can help by offering Turkey EU membership in trade for Turkish support.Without Turkey Kurdistan will become a reality. Iran has already margnalized itself with its atomic program.

Once the parties are seperated several things nee to be done. 1-the water and oil need to be fairly divided and administered by the UN, via Moslem officals from nuetral countries like Pakistan and Indonesia until the new federations civil service is mature. 2- Iraq's debt needs to be forgiven without hesitation and its goverment needs to be extended billions in credits on very favorable terms according to Islamic not World Bank/IMF fiscal guidelines. 3- massive influx of reconstruction aid probsaby 10-30 billion a year for several years. While the money and material must come from the developed world (not just the US but from any nation that made money selling arms to Saddam), the sweat and muscle must come from Iraqies. 4- as soon as the major fighting is over true peace keepers empowered to enforce the peace must replace the US military. Again I would look to Islamic nations like Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Unles the Iraqies have faith that the US will leave as soon as it can do so in good faith a signifigant minority will feel the need to "liberate" thier nation. 5- Remove oil from the commodities lsit and set its price at a fair level and tie it to the global inflation rate. Say 55 USD a barrel. This would give all the oil exporting nations not just iraq some stable income.n Iraq it would give the 3 major groups hard numbers to work with in the division of Iraq's riches.

01-15-2007, 04:22 AM	#8 (permalink)
zraver Contrary by nature. *Military Professional* Join Date: 10-22-06 Location: Arkansas Posts: 3,068 Country:	Thank you Brigadier Ray, Mayalasia succeeded primarily beucase of the dual use of relocation and cutting of supply lines. Becuase the islands did not lend them selves to a Ho Chi Mihn Trail the amount of amteriual that could be smuggled in was small. The key in Veitnam wasn't relocation, but land reform. Most of the magor land owners in South Vietnam were absentee and British experts urged such reforms. One of the big draws of the VC and thier Northern amsters was land reform. If the RV had done this a signifigant base of support could have been cut off, and the VC defeated before the North was ready for full sclae operations in the south. The insurgewncy in Vietnam was beaten by miltiary force and all but ceased to exist as an efective miltiary force after Tet 68. However by then the NVA was in the south in force. other conventional victories over guerilla forces include the defeat of the SS Werewolf campaign in post war Germany, the nazi defeat of the Chetniks and Tito's partisans in 43-44. And in the post war defeat of the Forest Brothers in the Baltic states. All used the massive application of force. while the world hasn't changed bleeding hearts have forced the democracies to labor under the mistaken concept that war has rules regarding its conduct. One day the democracies will wake up and realize that in war people die and you can either do the killing up front and break the enemies will to resist, or you can do it in dribs and dabs and end up with even more deaths in the long run. The US create the insurgency by not understanding the politcal dynamic of the nation. It could have recovered from this early on, but instead of providing order, drinking water, jobs,and power it provided elections for its own domestic politcal agenda. This allowed the insurgency to snowball. The US is now faced with two choices, continue to pander to the US doemstic market, or fight to win. The peace could be won in six months if the US and iraq's goverment could stomach the bloodletting it would require and if the US was willing to shoulder the burden of a massive increase in rebuilding to prevent a fresh wave of attacks when the survivors regrouped. Kill Sadr and as many of his zealots as possible. No last minute reprive trap him and burn him out like a rat. This would cripple the extra-govemrental shia miltias who are acting as death squads and lend some faith to the Sunni's that laying down thier arms wont expose them to even more sectarian violence. Thier are persistent rumors of the US meeting with Sunni insurgent leaders: security in a Shia dominated iraq is surely high on thier list. With Sadr and by extnesion Iran silenced at least for a short time begin talks on an autonomous federation: Shiastan, Sunnistan, and Kurdistan. This will require massed relocation to seperate the warring parties. The big blocks to this are of course Turkey and Iran. Europe can help by offering Turkey EU membership in trade for Turkish support.Without Turkey Kurdistan will become a reality. Iran has already margnalized itself with its atomic program. Once the parties are seperated several things nee to be done. 1-the water and oil need to be fairly divided and administered by the UN, via Moslem officals from nuetral countries like Pakistan and Indonesia until the new federations civil service is mature. 2- Iraq's debt needs to be forgiven without hesitation and its goverment needs to be extended billions in credits on very favorable terms according to Islamic not World Bank/IMF fiscal guidelines. 3- massive influx of reconstruction aid probsaby 10-30 billion a year for several years. While the money and material must come from the developed world (not just the US but from any nation that made money selling arms to Saddam), the sweat and muscle must come from Iraqies. 4- as soon as the major fighting is over true peace keepers empowered to enforce the peace must replace the US military. Again I would look to Islamic nations like Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Unles the Iraqies have faith that the US will leave as soon as it can do so in good faith a signifigant minority will feel the need to "liberate" thier nation. 5- Remove oil from the commodities lsit and set its price at a fair level and tie it to the global inflation rate. Say 55 USD a barrel. This would give all the oil exporting nations not just iraq some stable income.n Iraq it would give the 3 major groups hard numbers to work with in the division of Iraq's riches.