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**Shek** · 10-31-2006, 21:53 PM

Sombra,
Thanks for the link. A few thoughts.

1. First, I'm not an expert on DRC, but I'm not sure that it's a fair comparison to look at the rates of recorded vs. unrecorded deaths in the DRC to motivate why 9 out of 10 deaths would go unrecorded in Iraq. Does DRC have the same road and transportation infrastructure as Iraq? Do they have the same density of hospitals? morgues? Do they have the same administrative organization? How did the insurrection in DRC affect this capacity? I find his response very unegaging.

2. Benchmarking Jordan and Syria to Iraq is somewhat ludicrous to me. To do so would require ignoring a decade plus of sanctions which prevented the rebuilding of infrastructure (as well as Saddam's intentional neglect of non-Sunni elements) and clearly contributed to malnutrition and deteriorating health services. A four year old estimate from Iraq is much more accurate than a current estimate from a much more advanced neighboring country.

3. His response to the UN survey is weak. First, the UN survey includes April as well as some data from May. So, his response is off some there, and would lead to wrong comparison numbers. Next, he talks about how the UN survey isn't a comprehensive survey with regards to mortality - each household interview on average took 60 minutes, which is ten times the time that Roberts et al spent per house based on his responses in the link you cited. While the UN survey looked at numerous issues, I think that they had enough time to gather enough data to develop a credible number. Finally, his 70K number that he cites from the second survey is three times larger than the UN number. I'd still call that quite divergent, and in fact, it's the exact same result as what the question asks. LOL!

4. He talks about how it is rare for even 20% of bodies to be found during war. However, he cites no evidence that would support this, other than his DRC example which doesn't motivate why it is a proper benchmark (not to mention that his statistics cover death by disease as opposed to death by violence - I'm sure that this has some bearing on how public officials in an overwhelmed country would handle the bodies - i.e. don't bring us your diseased bodies!).

10-31-2006, 21:53 PM	#11 (permalink)
Shek Moderator Join Date: 02-23-05 Location: Krblachistan Posts: 7,253 Country:	Sombra, Thanks for the link. A few thoughts. 1. First, I'm not an expert on DRC, but I'm not sure that it's a fair comparison to look at the rates of recorded vs. unrecorded deaths in the DRC to motivate why 9 out of 10 deaths would go unrecorded in Iraq. Does DRC have the same road and transportation infrastructure as Iraq? Do they have the same density of hospitals? morgues? Do they have the same administrative organization? How did the insurrection in DRC affect this capacity? I find his response very unegaging. 2. Benchmarking Jordan and Syria to Iraq is somewhat ludicrous to me. To do so would require ignoring a decade plus of sanctions which prevented the rebuilding of infrastructure (as well as Saddam's intentional neglect of non-Sunni elements) and clearly contributed to malnutrition and deteriorating health services. A four year old estimate from Iraq is much more accurate than a current estimate from a much more advanced neighboring country. 3. His response to the UN survey is weak. First, the UN survey includes April as well as some data from May. So, his response is off some there, and would lead to wrong comparison numbers. Next, he talks about how the UN survey isn't a comprehensive survey with regards to mortality - each household interview on average took 60 minutes, which is ten times the time that Roberts et al spent per house based on his responses in the link you cited. While the UN survey looked at numerous issues, I think that they had enough time to gather enough data to develop a credible number. Finally, his 70K number that he cites from the second survey is three times larger than the UN number. I'd still call that quite divergent, and in fact, it's the exact same result as what the question asks. LOL! 4. He talks about how it is rare for even 20% of bodies to be found during war. However, he cites no evidence that would support this, other than his DRC example which doesn't motivate why it is a proper benchmark (not to mention that his statistics cover death by disease as opposed to death by violence - I'm sure that this has some bearing on how public officials in an overwhelmed country would handle the bodies - i.e. don't bring us your diseased bodies!). __________________ "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3