pandaroo,
Quote:
Yet the balance here is whether you want a certain type of stability based on which the economy can grow really quick or a real good idea that can't be possibly enforced within a short time.
I'm totally unashamed to be a calculating ***** here, and I'd say that given all the problems we've got here now, I'd reluctantly pick the former.
Maybe this is the bashed-wife mentality... But anyway, unless there is something that proves otherwise, I don't consider undergoing some drastic social change a good idea.
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oh, certainly, certainly. i don't think we can simply plunk down democracy into china and expect it to work.
in fact, if you had asked me this question of whether the CCP is correct in sacrificing political reform for economic reform, i would have certainly said "yes" 10 years ago, a less-qualified "yes" even 5 years ago (incidentally when i first made my foray into chinese politics/military online), but now...
right now the CCP has identified a new problem, that of rising peasant protests, which has actually increased 40% in the last 2 years. the CCP's new focus is now NOT upon economic growth, but "social harmony". this is a good deal more vague than a focus on economic growth, and as we have seen, efforts to "partner up" the rich coastal provinces with the poorer hinterland provinces haven't really succeeded- it's more of a drag for the first than a help for the second.
this problem, combined with an inevitable future problem of middle-class restlessness, is going to make life a lot harder for both china and the CCP. the trick to solving this problem isn't a renewed call for "social harmony", but to institute some very basic political reforms which at this stage will not rock the boat that much at all. i can think of a few: independent corruption review panels, an accelerated freedom of the judiciary, increased freedom of press.
right now corruption is being hunted down on a political basis- ie, the offending corruptor is so blatant that doing so hurts the party image, or because the offending corruptor is a political enemy of someone higher up, or both. this makes hunting down corruption a very hit-or-miss affair. an independent corruption review panel would reduce this problem and force CCP officials to be somewhat more accountable.
the latter two the CCP have begun to do, but at a snail's pace. this no longer fits with the astonishing growth that the chinese economy is experiencing. as a basis for economic growth, rule of law must be implemented. the CCP talks about this (especially intellectual property rights/protection), but it's still not enough.
finally, increased freedom of press: the chinese gov't likes to talk about the explosion of foreign press in the country. that is all well and good, but the CCP still has a disturbing habit of silencing dissenters (although less forcefully and less often than 10 years ago). by now, i think that actually hurts CCP credibility more than it helps- it doesn't provide for much "stability" and causes much grumbling.
these ideas are not dramatic social changes, these are fairly incremental political reforms...reforms that the CCP will have to do sooner or later. it would be better for them- and china- if they started doing it sooner. china can afford these now.